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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* The US dollar advanced on Thursday amid strong initial jobless claims data form the US. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 192,000 in the week ending February 18th, below market expectations of 200,000. The latest value remained close to the nine-month low of 183,000 hit at the end of January, giving further evidence that the US labor market remains tight. Meanwhile, sharp upside was capped on weaker than expected GDP data from the US

* The rupee future maturing on February 24 appreciated by 0.21% as market processed hawkish remarks from RBI monetary policy meeting minutes

* The rupee is expected to depreciate for the day amid rise in crude oil prices, strong dollar and FII outflow from the domestic equity market. Further, investors will closely watch core PCE price index data from the US, which is expected to rise from 0.3% to 0.4%. US$INR is likely to trade towards the level of 82.90

Euro and Pound Outlook

* The Euro remained volatile and dropped yesterday amid strong dollar and sharp drop in German 10 years bond yields. Meanwhile, further downside was restricted as the consumer price inflation in the Euro Area was revised slightly higher to 8.6% YoY in January 2023, up from a preliminary estimate of 8.5% and well above the European Central Bank's target of 2.0%

* We expect Euro to trade with a negative bias for the day amid weakness in German government bond yields and strong dollar. Meanwhile, traders will closely watch German GDP Q4 data from the euro area, which is expected to remain unchanged. EURUSD is likely to break the key support level of 1.0580 to continue its downward trend towards the level of 1.0560. EURINR (February) is expected to drop towards the level of 87.40

* The Pound tumbled more than 0.20% on Thursday amid strong dollar and drop in UK 10 years bond yields. Meanwhile, further downside was prevented on hawkish comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann

* The pound is expected to trade with a negative bias for the day majorly on the back of strong dollar. Further, market will remain cautious ahead of the statements from MPC policymakers to get the cues on future monetary stance. GBPUSD is likely to break the key support level of 1.1990 to continue its downward trend towards the level of 1.1960. GBPINR (February) is expected to drop towards the level of 99.20

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