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Sensex (60059) / Nifty (17895)

The RBI governor announced its monetary policy on Friday and the outcome was very much in line with the general consensus. Markets did not look much excited as it turned out to be non-event. There was no follow up seen in key indices throughout the remaining part of the session. Eventually Nifty ended the week around the 17900 mark, which is the highest ever close for our markets. Considering the recent behaviour of the market, it is pretty clear that the bulls are not willing to let loose their firm grip so easily. But we reiterate it is that sort of phase of the market, which may not be easy to participate in. We are not at all convinced trading aggressively on the long side at this moment, yes there could be odd thematic moves that can be focused on but do not want to go all guns blazing at such elevated levels

As far as levels are concerned, 17900 – 17950 remains to be a sturdy wall and on the flipside, 17600 has become a sacrosanct support now. The way we are following US markets of late; all eyes on them how they move going ahead. Also, as far as BANKNIFTY is concerned, nobody knows what it is up to. Clearly directionless and is flirting around key support as well as resistance levels. The IT heavyweight TCS has flagged off the result season. Let’s see if any exciting outcome from this pushes Nifty beyond 18000 or not.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (37775)

During the last week, we began on a cheerful note and saw smart buying interest to extend the upmove beyond 38100 on Wednesday. However, index couldn’t sustain at higher levels and hence corrected to concluded tad above 37500. In the next two session, we gained strength on opening by ended the sessions in red. On Friday, the banking index reattempt to touch 38100 mark but once again failed to concluded the week below 37800 with the gains of nearly 1.5% to previous weeks close. Despite RBI policy announcement and fluctuation seen in the US market, the BankNifty traded in a range of 37350-38100 for the entire week. The range for banking index has been shrinking week by week which hints some sharp move is soon due. It would be interesting to see how things pans out this week, whether we would see some excitement beyond the above mentioned range. At this point in time, we would advocate traders staying light in index and continuing with stock specific approach.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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