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Sensex (49206) / Nifty (14823)

In last few weeks, every Monday has brought some unexpected move at the opening and last week too it surprised everyone with a decent gap down opening. Lot of domestic factors weighed down heavily to trigger the downside gap and global cues had very little to contribute in it. Fortunately, Nifty managed to hold the key support in the initial hiccup and in fact, a good amount of buying at lower levels led to a complete recovery in the latter half. Barring Tuesday’s sluggishness, we witnessed a slow and steady up move throughout the remaining part of the week to reclaim the 14800 mark. On a weekly basis, Nifty managed to clock over a percent gains in the inaugurated week of May month.

Since last few days the index seems to have lost its charm. Although it has been maintaining its positive posture throughout, the overall movement is quite lethargic. All key indices like NIFTY, BANKNIFTY and NIFTY IT are trapped in a slender range. As far as higher levels are concerned for Nifty, 14900 – 14960 – 15050 are the levels to watch out for; whereas on the flip side, 14750 – 14600 – 14450 are to be considered as immediate supports. Till the time we do not see index coming out of its congestion zone, such boredom is likely to continue. Thus, it’s better not to trade aggressively in index and carrying overnight positions is strictly avoided. Taking a glance at the intraday charts, we can see the range shrinking drastically and hence, there is a high possibility that we may see a decisive breakout soon.

Although, key indices are displaying complete boredom, the broader market is clearly not short of actions. In fact, there were numerous themes that played out exceedingly well throughout the week. Every now and then we are observing some sector chipping in to keep the traders’ fraternity engrossed all the time. Hence, the pragmatic approach would be to keep focusing on such potential movers to obtain better trading opportunities. One of the notable observations is the development in ‘NIFTY MIDCAP’ index. In the latter half of the week, it has managed to surpass the higher boundary of the cluster of resistance by a small margin. Couple of follow up moves in this basket would provide the real impetus for the next leg of the rally.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (32904)

We started-off the week with a downside gap amidst domestic concerns over the COVID. Initially, we saw index sliding below 32000 mark but this got bought into same day. As we progressed, the banking index attracted follow-up buying interest and hence, we saw a gradual up move beyond 33200. Eventually, BankNifty concluded the week on a slightly positive note with the gains of 0.37%. It’s been the second week, wherein the BankNifty has shown some buying interest around 32000-32200 levels. This space has recently underperformed the benchmark index but could manage to sustain above 20 EMA in the weekly chart; which bodes well for Bulls. Now, it will be really important to see how things pan out in this truncated week as recently the overall trading range for BankNifty has shrunk a lot and we expect some momentum to soon attract this space. Considering the overall price action, it’s advisable to stay light in index until we see a relevant traction. As far as levels are concerned, 33200-33500 is an immediate hurdle and on the downside; around 32000 mark is the strong demand zone.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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