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Sensex (60008) / Nifty (17899)

The SGX Nifty was indicating a sluggish start yesterday morning and in line with this, our markets started the day on a soft note. In the first couple of hours, market managed to recover from lower levels to reclaim the 18000 mark. This was then followed by some consolidation but once again last hour nervousness poured complete water as we witnessed a sharp decline to sneak below 17900 at the close.

Within the recent consolidation, the market has started to grind lower gradually since last three trading sessions. Although the damage is negligible, we can see some interesting price development on the chart. In our previous commentary, we had mentioned about the small ‘Channel’ pattern on the hourly chart. With yesterday’s corrective move, Nifty has reached the lower boundary and the way overall things are positioned, Nifty seems to be on the verge of a breakdown. In fact, below 17700 we could see a confirmation of ‘Head and shoulder’ pattern formed on the daily time frame chart. Considering all these observations, we can see market trading at the make or break levels now. Any sustainable breakdown from the mentioned supports will lead to extended correction in the near term; whereas on the flipside, if Nifty has to regain any strength it needs to first reclaim the 18000 mark on a closing basis. The coming session would be crucial for our market and hence one needs to a keep a close tab on all the above mentioned scenarios.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (38042)

Wednesday’s sell-off was followed by a gap down opening for the banking index as well. As we progressed, some respite was observed in initial two hours of trade but similar to recent trend it got sold into to tank below 38000 mark. Finally, we closed third consecutive session in red with a cut of nearly seventh tenth of a percent.

The banking index has been the major dragger lately and this has in turn resulted the benchmark index closing below 20 DEMA. With BankNifty’s recent price action, we have already cautioned traders to avoid any kind of bottom fishing. As anticipated, index has slipped below the supports of 38300-38400 on the closing bases and looks poised for follow-up selling towards 37700 and then 37300. Hence, we would advocate buy ATM puts incase of any intraday recoveries in today’s weekly expiry session.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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