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Below View On US Fed by Mr Anand Varadarajan, Director, Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd 

The inflation for Mar 2023 cooled off below RBIs upper target range of 6% to 5.66%. This was primarily on account of moderation seen in food inflation that stood at 4.79% in Mar 2023 down from 5.95% m/m and 7.68% y/y.
The inflation numbers have been above 6% throughout the last fiscal barring Nov & Dec when the numbers fell marginally below 6% only to bounce back to 6.52% in Jan 2023.
We expect the RBI to continue its “pause” stand with respect to repo rate increases as seen from its recent RBI policy. Before cutting rates, the RBI would wait to confirm for more reduction in inflation numbers or at least a longer consistency of it being below 6% for a few more months. By then, the onset of monsoon in June would also give better visibility of food inflation going forward.
Only after ensuring positive results from the above, we expect the RBI to shift focus from fighting inflation to enhancing growth by looking at reducing rates.

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