IGI Logo

Rupee Could Start Slightly Higher As Dollar Retreats

* The Indian Rupee could mark the first weekly gain after an eleventh weekly loss as foreign inflows return amid cheap local currency and valuation. Weakness in the dollar index and lower crude oil prices are likely to support the rupee in today’strade.

* US-based GQG Partners LLC has more than $7 billion invested in India, betting its best positioned among emerging nations to withstand a global recession.

* On Thursday, spot USDINR fell 4 paise to 79.95 after briefly consolidating in a narrow range. The pair is still bullish trend while bulls might be out of fuel around 80 and unwinding or booking profit on central banks’ dollar supply. The pair is having near-termresistance at 80.30 and support at 79.70.

* Asia stocks are likely to head higher after shares rose in the US. The US equity futures pared declines as a jump in Chinese technology shares lifted sentiment, easing some disappointment over mixed earnings.

* The euro was performing stronger against the dollar after being whipsawed earlier Thursday as traders digested the latest policy pronouncements from the European Central Bank. the European Central Bank’s 50 basis-point interest-rate hikes, the firstincrease in 11 years.

* USDJPY retraced after the BOJ left rates unchanged Thursday while lowering its economic growth forecastfor this year.

* Elsewhere, Oil headed for a third weekly drop, the longest run of declines this year, on concerns over weaker US gasoline demand and a globalslowdown. In a phone call on Thursday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed continued cooperation within OPEC+, the broad group that comprises the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Technical Observations:

* USDINR July futures closed below previous days close after June 20, the firstsign of weakness.

* However, the pair has been still above short term moving average of 13 days and holding the bullish sequence of a higher tops and higher bottoms on all major time frames.

* Relative Strength Index of 14 days given negative cross over and about to exit oversold zone indicating short term weakness.

* MACD has given negative crossover to average suggesting weakness in the pair.

* USDINR July futures could saw long unwinding and may head towards 79.70 to 79.40 subject to it doesn’t break 80.15.

USDINR July Futures Daily Chart

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://www.hdfcsec.com/article/disclaimer-1795

SEBI Registration number is INZ000171337

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer