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Nifty: 17325

Technical Outlook

• The Nifty witnessed a gap up opening (17222-17297) and underwent choppy consolidation late recovery led by financials helped index to close at days high and above 17300 levels resulting in bull candle carrying higher high-low, indicating follow through strength to Monday’s hammer candle signifying continuance of positive bias

• Structurally, despite elevated crude prices and hawkish Fed stance, index managed to form strong base around 17000 and 50 days EMA, highlighting structural improvement as the stage has been set to resolve higher. Key point to highlight is that the index has finally managed to close above the upper band of falling ‘Andrews’ Pitchfork’ that augurs well for extension of ongoing up move gradually towards 18000 in April. Hence, dips should be capitalised on as incremental buying opportunity as we do not expect Nifty to breach the key support of 16800-16700. Our target of 18000 is based on following observation:

• a) 80% retracement of entire corrective phase since October 2021 (18604-15671)

• b) downward slanting trend line drawn adjoining OctoberJanuary highs (18604-18350)

• Structurally, over past seven sessions index has retraced less than 23.6% of preceding 8 session’s up move. The shallow retracement exhibits inherent strength that makes us confident to retain support base at 16800 as it is 61.8% retracement of recent up move (16470-17442), placed at 16842

• The broader market indices have been forming a higher base above 52 weeks EMA that has set the stage to witness catch up activity with its large cap peers in coming weeks. Thus, focus should be on accumulating quality midcap stocks In the coming session, index is likely to witness gap up opening tracking buoyant global cues. We expect index to endure positive momentum while maintaining higher high-low formation. Hence, use intraday dips towards 17430-17462 for creating long position for target of 17548

NSE Nifty Daily Candlestick Chart

Nifty Bank: 35847

Technical Outlook​​​​​​​

• The daily price action formed a high wave candle with a higher high -low signaling positive follow through to previous session hammer like candle indicating positive bias .

• On the smaller time frame the index has already taken seven sessions to retrace just 38 . 2 % of the preceding eight sessions up move (32156 -36612 ) . A slower retracement signals a higher base formation

• Going ahead, we expect the index to maintain positive bias and resolve above last two weeks highs placed around 36800 levels and head towards 38000 levels in the coming month being the 80 % retracement of the February -March decline (39424 -32155 )

• In the process any temporary breather should not be seen as negative, instead should be capitalized as buying opportunity in quality banking stocks

• The short term support base for the index is placed around 34000 -33800 levels being the confluence of :

• (a) 61 . 8 % retracement of the last two weeks up move (32155 -36612 ) placed at 33800 levels

• (b) The bullish gap area of 10th March 2022 is also placed around 33800 levels

• Among the oscillators the daily stochastic has generated a buy signal moving above its three periods average thus supports the positive bias in the index In the coming session, index is likely to open gap up amid firm global cues . We expect the index to Index to trade with positive while maintaining higher high -low . Hence after a positive opening use intraday dips towards 36180 -36240 for creating long position for target of 36510 , maintain a stop loss at 36060

Nifty Bank Index – Daily Candlestick Chart

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