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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar index posted marginal losses on Monday as easing banking concerns sparked a rally in risky assets. The deal between First Citizens Bancshares and SVB provided respite to the banking worries. Further, expectations of an increase in emergency lending facility by the Federal Reserve to the banks weighed on the dollar

• Rupee future maturing on April 26 appreciated by 0.10% to 82.55 amid weakness in dollar and improved domestic equities

• The US$INR is likely to move towards the immediate support 82.10 amid weakness in dollar and improved global risk sentiments. Further, expectation of weaker consumer confidence data in the US could also weigh on the dollar. For the day US$INR, is likely to face resistance of 10 day SMA at 82.55 and dip towards the key 100 day SMA support at 82.10. Only a move below 82.10 would weaken further towards 81.90- 81.80

Euro and Pound Outlook

• The Euro gained by 0.44% on Monday after German March Ifo business confidence unexpectedly rose to a 13 month high. Further easing banking fears in the region also supported the Euro to recover its Friday losses and it managed to end above the 1.08 mark

• The Euro is expected to trade on a positive note amid weakness in dollar and improved risk sentiments. The EURUSD is hovering between the mid and higher Bollinger band suggesting bullish bias. Additionally, the bullish crossover of 20 and 50 day EMA could also support the pair to rally again towards the immediate target resistance near1.087-1.0920. EURINR (April) is likely to hold the support of 10 day SMA near 88.80 and move towards the target resistance at 89.60

• The pound moved higher on Monday, after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey sounded hawkish. In his speech he cited key concerns on inflation numbers and assured to take additional tightening measure to contain the inflation in the region

• The pound is likely to move higher amid weakness in dollar and improved global risk sentiments. The pair held the support of 10 day EMA at 1.218 and is is expected to move higher towards the next target resistance of 1.2340. The bullish crossover of 10 and 20 day EMA is going to support the pair to scale back towards last weeks highs. GBPINR (April) is expected to hold the support near 100.90 and rise towards 101.50- 101.740

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