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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar index bounced back from its six week’s low and closed near higher end of the session succeeding better-than-expected US economic numbers. The initial weekly jobless claims numbers fell to 191,000, suggesting a stronger job market. Furthermore, February new home sales numbers improved to a six month high of 640,000

• Rupee future maturing on March 28 appreciated to 82.25 amid weakness in dollar as the market anticipated that the Federal Reserve will end the rate hike cycle

• The US$INR is likely to find support near the key psychological level at 82.00 amid a recovery in the dollar. The US dollar is expected to find the support ahead of today’s key economic numbers. The US Flash Service PMI numbers are expected to indicate improvement in the sector. For the day US$INR, is likely to hold 100 day EMA support at 82.00 and move towards the key 20 day EMA resistance at 82.45

Euro and Pound Outlook

• The Euro failed to capitalise on its gains above the key psychological level at 1.09 and ended the day on the losing side at 1.082. The weakness in euro zone consumer confidence data weighed over the Euro as it unexpectedly declined to -19.2

• The Euro is expected to trim its gains ahead of today’s key service and PMI numbers. The manufacturing numbers are still below the 50 mark, suggesting contraction in the economy. The pair is likely to dip towards the immediate support zone of 1.076 as it faced resistance near the higher end of the Bollinger band channel at 1.0920. Further, last week’s strong rally could also force the traders to lock their profits after it rallied from 1.055 to 1.092 during the last five trading sessions. EURINR (March) is likely to dip towards the support of five day EMA at 89.00, as long as it remains under 89.80

• The pound managed to hold its gains and ended on a positive note after BoE hiked rates by 25 bps on Thursday. The pair found support after BoE said further tightening would be required if there was evidence of more persistent price pressures

• The pound is likely to trade on a weaker note ahead of today’s key retail sales numbers, which is expected to decline 0.2% against previous reading of 0.5%. The pair has hit the higher Bollinger band at 1.233 on Thursday, which could act as key resistance for the day. Hence, as long as 1.233 resists the pair is expected to move towards the immediate support at 1.2210. The oscillator( Stochastics) is suggesting overbought condition, which could bring an intermediate correction in the pair. GBPINR (March) is expected move towards 100.60, as long as the pair trades below 101.50

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