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Nifty : 17322

Technical Outlook

* The Nifty started the session on a subdued note and gradually inched southward as intraday pullbacks were short lived. As a result, daily price action formed a bear candle carrying lower high-low, indicating extended breather.

* The lack of follow through strength above Wednesday’s bull candle signifies prolonged consolidation amid oversold conditions. Going ahead, a decisive close current week’s high of 17460 would confirm pause in downward momentum and gradually accelerate upward momentum towards 17800 in coming week as it is 61.8% retracement of past two weeks decline (18135-17255). Thus, any dip from here on should be capitalised to accumulate quality stock as we expect index to hold key support of 17200 amid bouts of global volatility

* Key observation on longer degree charts is that since 2008, in each of seven instances of Nifty correcting for three consecutive months, following month produced average 5% return. Going by this rhythm, we may expect Nifty to head towards 18300 in March 2023 ? Dollar Index has retraced its three months decline in February in slower pace. From market direction perspective, a bearish reversal in dollar index would indicate risk appetite returning to markets, that will also lead to higher inflow from foreign investors

* We expect, extended correction would find its feet around immediate support of 17200 levels being confluence of:

* a) 80% retracement of past September-December 2022 rally 16748-18887, placed at 17175

* b) price parity of December decline 18887-17774 projected from end of January high of 18201, is placed at 17132

* In the coming session, index is likely to open on a positive note tracking firm global cues. We expect, index to hold weekly expiry low of 17380 and trade with a positive bias. Hence, use intraday dips towards 17390-17420 to create intraday long positions for target of 17507 with a stoploss of 17353

Nifty Bank: 40269

Technical Outlook

* The daily price action formed a bear candle with a higher high and a lower low signaling minor profit booking after last three sessions up move .

* Index in the current week is seen rebounding from the key support area of 39500 being the lower band of the last four weeks range and presence of 200 days EMA (currently placed at | 40022 ) . Going ahead, we expect the index to maintain overall positive bias and gradually head towards 41500 levels being the 80 % retracement of the last two weeks decline (41979 -39600 )

* Structurally, since CY20 (Covid lows) intermediate corrections have lasted for 9 -11 weeks in a row . In the current scenario the index has already witnessed 11 weeks of corrective decline retracing 65 % of its preceding 10 weeks rally of October –December (37387 -44151 ) . A shallow retracement signals a base formation and a positive price structure

* The index has key support around 39200 -39500 levels being the confluence of (a) the lower band of the last one month’s consolidation range placed around 39400 levels (b) the presence of long term 52 weeks EMA is also placed at 39390 levels

* Among the oscillators, the daily stochastic is in uptrend thus supports the continuation of the current pullback in the coming sessions

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