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Nifty : 17118

Technical Outlook

* The Nifty started the session on a positive note but failed to sustain at higher levels and profit booking extended as the session progressed. The daily price action formed a bear candle carrying lower low, indicating a pause in upward momentum after past two week’s sharp up move (1680 points)

* Going ahead, we expect the stock specific action would prevail while sailing through ongoing global volatility. Key point to highlight is that, the Nifty has witnessed a sharp rally of over 10% in last two weeks. Thus, couple of days breather can not be ruled out that would make market healthy. However, such a temporary breather should not be construed as negative. Instead dips should be capitalised on as incremental buying opportunity as we expect Nifty to eventually surpass 17300 and gradually head towards 17800 in coming weeks it is 80% retracement of past two months’ decline coincided with February high of 17795. Therefore, focus should be on constructing portfolio by accumulating quality stocks

* The broader market indices have formed a higher base above 52 weeks EMA that has set the stage to witness catch up activity with its large cap peers in coming weeks. Thus, focus should be on accumulating quality midcap stocks

* The Nifty staged a strong rebound after forming a higher base above 52 weeks EMA. The formation of higher peak and trough signifies rejuvenation of upward momentum that makes us confident to retain support base at 16500 as it is:

* A) 50% retracement of current up move (15671-17353), placed at 16512

* B) last week’s low is placed at 16555

In the coming session, index is likely to open on a flat note amid muted global cues. In today’s session we expect the index to trade in a range with corrective bias. Hence use pullback towards 17250- 17280 for creating short position for target of 17161

Nifty Bank: 36018

Technical Outlook

* The daily price action formed a bear candle which gave up most of last session gains and closed within last Thursday gap up area (35806 -26261 ) signaling profit booking after a sharp up move of more than 13 % in just two weeks . Hence a couple of days of breather can not be ruled out which will make the index healthy .

* Index has retraced 61 . 8 % of the recent decline at 36600 in just two weeks . Going ahead, bias remain positive and any temporary breather towards 35000 -35500 levels should not be seen as negative, instead should be capitalized as buying opportunity in quality banking stocks . Sustainability above 36600 will lead to extension of the current up move towards 38000 levels in the coming weeks being the 80 % retracement of the February -March decline (39424 -32155 )

* Structurally, buying demand emerged from the major support area of 32500 in the last two weeks and has lead to a formation of higher high-low in the weekly chart. This makes us confident to revise the support base higher towards 34000 levels being the confluence of :

* (a) 50 % retracement of the last two weeks up move (32155 -36612 ) placed at 34300 levels

* (b) The bullish gap area of 10th March 2022 is also placed around 34000 levels

* Among the oscillators the weekly stochastic is in up trend thus supports overall positive bias in the index

In the coming session, index is likely to open on a flat note amid muted global cues . In today’s session we expect the index to trade in a range with corrective bias . Hence use pullback towards 36390 -36450 for creating short position for target of 36120 , maintain a stop loss at 36570

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