Rupee awaits Fed's forecast on number of interest rate cuts
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The Indian rupee is set for a quiet session on Wednesday, eyeing whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will signal fewer rate cuts this year, compared to its December projections.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open in the 83.01-83.03 range to the U.S. dollar, compared with the previous session's 83.0350. It is expected to maintain a narrow range through the day.
The local currency on Tuesday weakened past the 83 level for the first time in a month on dollar buying by foreign banks for their custodial clients and by public sector banks for oil companies, according to traders.
"Yesterday, (the dollar/rupee pair) climbed past its near-term 82.95-83.00 resistance, suggesting that the immediate trend has turned from down to neutral," a currency dealer at a bank said.
"This has opened the upside potential if Fed deals a hawkish surprise."
The Fed is not expected to make changes to the policy rate, with the primary focus on projections on the interest rate trajectory. In December, the median estimate for Dec 2024 was 4.6%, signalling expectations for three 25 basis points rate cuts.
The median was centred on forecast of only six members, a slim majority of one, ANZ Bank said in a note. Five members predicted two rate cuts and four predicted four cuts.
"The tight clustering leaves potential for the median dot plot to shift to signalling two cuts this year," ANZ said.
Expectations for rate cuts have changed significantly since the beginning of the year, with investors now pricing in fewer cuts compared to the initial projections of more than six.
Asian currencies saw narrow moves before the Fed decision expected at 23.30 IST. The dollar index edged higher, while U.S. Treasury yields dipped.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.08 ** Dollar index at 103.90 ** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $87.2 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.29% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $140.7mln worth of Indian shares on Mar. 18
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $94.2mln worth of Indian bonds on Mar. 18
