IGI Logo

Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar slipped yesterday amid a rise in risk appetite in global markets. Further, investors were worried that higher interest rates could lead to a recession. Meanwhile, PPI and consumer sentiment data due Friday remained in the limelight

• Rupee future maturing on December 28 appreciated by 0.04% yesterday amid a weak dollar, soft crude oil prices and rise in risk appetite in global markets

• The rupee is likely to appreciate today on the back of weakness in the dollar and optimistic global market sentiments. Further, softening of crude oil prices may be supportive for the domestic currency as it will reduce the Import bills. In the meantime, investors will remain cautious ahead of the key economic data from US as it could change the expectations around the terminal Fed fund rates which currently lingers around 5%. Additionally, investors fear that rising interest rates will hamper global economic growth. US$INR (December) may trade in a range of 82.15-82.60

Euro and Pound Outlook

• The Euro edged up yesterday mainly on the back of weakness in dollar and rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets. Further, it was a quiet day in Europe’s economic calendar with no major data to give clues on economic health. Traders braced themselves for major events next week. Fed, BoE and ECB will announce interest rate decisions

• The Euro is expected to trade with a positive bias amid weak dollar and optimistic global market sentiments. Meanwhile, investors will remain cautious ahead of ECB monetary policy scheduled next week, where central bank will hike rate to control stubbornly high inflation. EURUSD is taking support near 1.0530 levels. As long as it sustains above this level EURUSD may rally back to 1.0620 levels. EURINR (December) is expected to trade in a range of 86.55-87.30

• The pound appreciated yesterday on the back of weakness in dollar. However, sharp upside was capped on risk aversion in domestic markets and disappointing economic data from Britain

• The pound is expected to trade with a positive amid weak dollar and positive global market sentiments. Meanwhile, investors will remain cautious ahead of BoE’s monetary policy scheduled next week, where the central bank is likely to hike rate again to tame elevated inflation. Investor will also focus on statements to get fresh direction cues. GBPUSD is holding support near 1.2200 level. As long as it sustains above this level pound may rally to 1.2350 levels. GBPINR (December) is expected to trade in a range of 100.60-101.30

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer