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GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP

U.S. Gold fell on Friday butstill posted a second straight weekly gain as an upward run in the first two days of the week helped the long crowd in bullion whether a robust U.S. jobs report for September sent rival dollar rallying.

Base metals prices cooled off during the second half of the week as global equities witnessed sharp correction and on the back of the US, jobs report on Friday. Copper inventories in domestic bonded zones fell 7,000 mt from September 30 to 51,700 mt as of October 9, according to the SMM survey

WTI Oil posted its biggest weekly gain since early March as an increasingly negative supply outlook offset troublesome macroeconomic concerns. The bullish playbook is back on in full swing. Brent call option volumes were the highest since April on Thursday. It’s almost a done deal that Brent crude will rise back to $100 a barrel after OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production. Russia also reiterated this week that it won’tsell oil to countries that adopt a US-led price cap, adding to supply uncertainty. Another positive factor is that oil is rising even as the dollar pushes higher.

The Dollar Index rallied for a third consecutive day, hitting a session high of 112.7 and inching toward the 20-year highs hit a week ago.

Commodity Weekly BULLION

U.S. Gold fell on Friday but still posted a second straight weekly gain as an upward run in the first two days of the week helped the long crowd in bullion whether a robust U.S. jobsreportfor Septembersent rival dollar rallying.

The Dollar Index rallied for a third consecutive day, hitting a session high of 112.7 and inching toward the 20-year highs hit a week ago.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note hit a one-week high of 3.906%, just about a point away fromthe 11-year high of 4.019% registered on Sept. 27.

The dollar and bond yields shot up after data showed that U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs in September, slightly above economists’ expectations. The U.S. jobless rate, meanwhile, dipped to 3.5% from August’s 3.7% in a continued challenge to the Federal Reserve’sfight againstinflation, the data showed.

While gold is branded a safe haven, in the eyes of investors, it is very much an alternative to the dollar. And here’s where gold’s problem lies. Of late, the dollar has persistently trended at two-decade highs as the Fed brought rates up by 300 basis pointsthis year froma base of just 25.

Commodity Weekly ENERGY

WTI Oil posted its biggest weekly gain since early March as an increasingly negative supply outlook offset troublesome macroeconomic concerns. West Texas Intermediate futures settled close to $93 a barrel on Friday after rallying more than 16% for the week. This week’s price surge marks a stark reversal for oil, which last week posted its worst quartersince 2020.

The bullish playbook is back on in full swing. Brent call option volumes were the highest since April on Thursday. It’s almost a done deal that Brent crude will rise back to $100 a barrel after OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production.

Russia also reiterated this week that it won’t sell oil to countries that adopt a US-led price cap, adding to supply uncertainty. Another positive factor is that oil is rising even asthe dollar pushes higher

Money managers have increased their bullish Brent and WTI oil bets by 53,179 combined net-long positions to 373,467, weekly ICE Futures Europe and CFTC futures and options data on four contractsshow.

India consumed 17.2 million tons of oil products in September compared with 15.9 million tons a year earlier.

Strategy for the Week: The bullish view for crude oil could continue in the coming weeks. WTI Crude oil took support at 76.25, the 126% Fibonacci extension level and closed above 13 WEMA. It has resistance at 93.80, the 50 weeks simple moving average MCX Crude Oil October future has resistance at 7770 and 7900 while 7250 acts assupport.

NYMEX Natural Gas has an upward-slopping trend line and 50 WSMA moving support at 6.305 and resistance at 7.59. The medium-term trend remains sideways to bullish for NaturalGas.

Commodity Weekly BASE METALS

Base metals prices cooled off during the second half of the week as global equities witnessed sharp correction and on the back of the US, jobsreport on Friday.

Copper inventories in domestic bonded zones fell 7,000 mt from September 30 to 51,700 mt as of October 9, according to the SMM survey.

The short-term demand outlook remains weak amid recession fears and weakening global manufacturing activity.

The focus is now on China’s 20th National Congress in Beijing, which willstart on October 16, with marketslooking for a possible change in the country’szero-Covid policy.

China recently unveiled new measures aimed at reviving the country’s real estate industry, which could potentially boostthe usage of industrial metals, including copper

Short term trend of the base metals remains strong and we expect base metals to trade sideways with a positive bias.

MCX Copper’s short-term trend remains positive with October Fut. support lying at Rs. 641 and 636 and resistance at Rs. 671.

Short term trend of the MCX Zinc is positive with Oct support lying at Rs. 271 and 266 and resistance at Rs. 281 and 286.

MCX Aluminium also looks good on the short-term chart. Immediate support for the Oct future lies at Rs. 193 with resistance at Rs. 211.

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