IGI Logo

TRAI’s Aug’22 subscriber (subs) data shows industry’s MBB (Mobile Broadband — 3G+4G) subs rose by a robust 5.6mn in Aug’22 (additions witnessed primarily for Jio and Bharti; VIL saw only marginal addition). This is the fourth consecutive month of decent MBB subs addition after muted additions since Dec’21. However, the industry’s active subs rose by 0.3mn in Aug’22 — with addition witnessed by Bharti and Jio, but it was largely offset by continued decline for VIL. Industry’s overall subs addition was 1.1mn, continuing the muted growth trend since Dec’21 (except for addition of 1.9mn/2.8mn witnessed in Jun’22/May’22).

Jio’s net subs rose for the 6 th month, up 3.3mn in Aug’22; further, active subs also rose by 2.5mn in Aug’22. Its VLR ratio moderated marginally MoM to 91.8% in Aug’22 (vs. peak of 94.0% in Feb’22, but it is significantly higher than sub-80% before Aug’21) vs. 98.3% for Bharti and 84.7% for VIL. Bharti’s MBB subs addition was robust at 1.7mn; further, active subs rose by 1.5mn in Aug’22. VIL’s MBB subs rose by a marginal 0.2mn in Aug’22; however, decline in active subs continues. Separately, Jio and Bharti’s strong FTTH addition continues.

* Jio’s net subs rose for the 6 th month in Aug’22 at 3.3mn; further, active subs also rose by 2.5mn in Aug’22: Jio’s net subs rose by 3.3mn in Augl’22 following an increase of 2.9mn/4.2mn/3.1mn/1.7mn/1.3mn in Jul’22/Jun’22/May’22/Apr’22/Mar'22; this is after having reported net subs loss of 3.7mn/9.3mn/12.9mn/19mn in Feb’22/Jan’22/Dec’21/Sep’21 due to sim consolidation post the Nov’21 tariff hike and repurposing of customer retention efforts for low-ARPU subscribers. Further, Jio’s active subs rose by 2.5mn in Aug’22, after having witnessed muted addition/decline since Mar’22 (except for 4.5mn addition in May’22); but Jio had seen strong active subs addition of ~4mn per month during Mar’21 to Jan’22. Jio’s VLR ratio moderated marginally MoM to 91.8% in Aug’22 (vs. peak of 94.0% in Feb’22, but it is significantly higher than sub-80% before Aug’21) vs. 98.3% for Bharti and 84.7% for VIL.

* Bharti’s MBB subs addition robust at 1.7mn; further, active subs rose by 1.5mn in Aug’22: Bharti’s MBB (Mobile broadband – 3G+4G) subs rose by 1.7mn in Aug’22 after having reported robust addition of ~2mn each month in Feb-Jul’22 (except for a decline of 0.3mn in Apr’22). Some moderation in MBB subs addition is driven by limited availability of smartphones due to chip shortage, resulting in a rise in the average price of smartphones, as highlighted by the Bharti management during its 1QFY23 results concall. Further, Bharti’s active subs base rose by 1.5mn in Aug’22, continuing the healthy addition witnessed since May’22 (except for 1.0mn decline in Jul’22).

* VIL’s MBB subs rose by a marginal 0.2mn in Aug’22; however, decline in active subs continues: VIL’s MBB subs addition rose by a marginal 0.2mn in Aug’22 (with Aug’21- Aug’22 cumulatively witnessing 0.8mn decline in MBB subs). However, its active subs base dipped by another 2.6mn in Aug’22, continuing the declining trend over the past many months due to the outsized churn in the lower ARPU segments given the entry level prepaid tariff hikes undertaken in Jul’21 and Nov’21. We believe that despite the moratoriums and recent tariff hikes, VIL may have to close the ~INR 100bn fund-raise exercise from non-promoters (with the promoter having agreed to infuse INR 49.4bn) for a meaningful increase in capex to boost upgrade of customers to MBB.

*Jio and Bharti’s robust FTTH addition continues: Jio’s FTTH subs additions continued to be robust at 0.29mn in Aug’22 (vs. peak addition of 0.35mn in Apr’22) after having moderated somewhat in Jul’22 (with 0.11mn addition). Further, Bharti’s FTTH subs addition was robust at 0.14mn in Aug’22 (vs. peak addition of 0.17mn in Jul’21). 

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://www.jmfl.com/disclaimer

SEBI Registration Number is INM000010361

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer