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Jio and Bharti does relatively better while VIL’s struggle continues

TRAI’s Nov’21 subscriber data shows another month of moderate subscriber addition for the industry (at 1.2mn) due to churn in the lower ARPU segments given the entry level prepaid tariff hike undertaken in Jul’21. Jio gained 2mn subscribers in Nov’21 (had added 1.8mn in Oct’21 and lost 19mn subscribers in Sep’21); however, active subscriber additions moderated to 1.1mn in Nov'21 (vs 3mn - 6mn addition per month in the last 4 months). Bharti’s MBB subscriber addition moderated for the 3rd consecutive month to 1.3mn in Nov’21; however, the active subscriber base rose by 1.8mn in Nov’21 (vs. a decline of 0.8mn in Oct’21 due to churn in the lower ARPU segment). Jio and Bharti’s strong FTTH addition momentum continues, though it has moderated slightly given the strong additions witnessed in the past few months. However, VIL continues to struggle: it was the 4rd consecutive month of weak MBB addition (down 0.1mn in Nov’21) indicating inadequate capex. Further, its active subscriber base continues to decline. We believe that despite the moratoriums and recent tariff hikes, VIL may have to close the fund-raise exercise for a meaningful increase in capex and further upgrade of customers to MBB.

* Jio adds 2mn subscribers in Nov'21; however, active subscriber addition moderates to 1.1mn: Jio gained 2mn subscribers in Nov’21 (had added 1.8mn in Oct’21 and lost 19mn subscribers in Sep’21). However, active subscriber additions moderated to 1.1mn in Nov'21 (after having added 3mn - 6mn active subscribers per month in the last 4 months). Further, FTTH additions moderated slightly to 0.18mn in Nov’21 (vs 0.22mn in Oct’21) after strong additions in the last few months.

* Bharti’s upgrade of customers to MBB moderates for 3rd consecutive month; but active subscriber base rises after last month’s decline: Bharti’s MBB (Mobile broadband – 3G+4G) subscriber addition moderated for the 3rd consecutive month to 1.3mn in Nov’21 vs. monthly addition of 4.0mn - 4.5mn in the preceding 3 months. However, the active subscriber base rose by 1.8mn in Nov’21 (vs. decline of 0.8mn in Oct’21 due to outsized churn in the lower ARPU segments given the entry level prepaid tariff hike undertaken in Jul’21). Further, like Jio, Bharti’s FTTH addition also moderated slightly; it added 0.10mn FTTH subscribers in Nov’21 (vs. 0.13mn in Oct’21) after strong additions in the last few months.

* VIL sees MBB addition fall by 0.1mn; declining trend in active subscribers continues: This is the 4rd consecutive month of weak MBB addition for VIL (down 0.1mn in Nov’21) indicating inadequate capex. Further, its active subscriber base continues to decline – fell another 2.7mn in Nov’21 – due to outsized churn in the lower ARPU segments given the entry level prepaid tariff hike undertaken during Jul’21. We believe that despite the moratoriums and recent tariff hikes, VIL might need to close the fund-raise exercise for a meaningful increase in capex and further upgrade of customers to MBB.

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