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* The telecom industry’s VLR base bounced back in May’22 after a steep fall in April. The VLR base grew by 3.9mn, led by Jio which added 4.5mn active subscribers. Bharti added 2.2mn subscribers, while VIL lost 2.3mn.

* For the second month in a row, Jio added the highest number of subscribers overall, with its base growing by 3.1mn. Bharti added 1mn subscribers while VIL’s subs fell by 0.8mn, the lowest in the last four months. Overall industry base grew by 2.8mn.

* Wireless broadband subs addition trends were also similar. Jio added 3.1mn subscribers, followed by Bharti which added 1.9mn. VIL also added 1.2mn subscribers. Most operators saw steady wireline broadband subscriber additions, with Jio in the lead position.

* Taking cues from data for the first two months of Q1FY23, we believe both Jio and Bharti might surpass our quarterly subs addition estimates (Jio: 6mn; Bharti: 2mn). Recovery in data subscriber addition from Q2FY23 will be key to watch out for.

Overall subscriber base of the industry expanded by 2.8mn – the highest in the last 10 months. Jio added 3.1mn subscribers – its highest in the last 10 months. Bharti, which added 1mn subscribers, was in second place. With its subscriber clean-up and SIM consolidation largely over, Jio should continue to report industry-leading subscriber additions. The VLR proportion was marginally up for both Jio and Bharti. This led to their VLR subscriber bases growing by 4.5mn and 2.2mn, respectively. The overall industry VLR subscriber base rose by 3.9mn, after falling by 7.5mn in Apr’22.

Broadband subscriber base: Jio led the pack in wireless broadband subscriber additions as well, with 3.1mn adds, and was closely followed by Bharti (1.9mn). VIL also added 1.2mn broadband subscribers. Further, Jio continued its winning streak in wireline subscribers by adding 0.26mn subscribers, while Bharti added 0.11mn (our interaction with Bharti management suggests that wireline subscriber base for Apr’22 was at 4.63mn vs 4.85mn reported by Trai earlier). Jio has further extended its lead and now has 5.9mn wireline broadband subscribers in total, while Bharti has 4.7mn.

Rural-Urban mix: The rural-urban mix was largely stable for the three operators. While Jio saw healthy subscriber growth in both rural and urban areas, Bharti saw flat growth in urban subscribers. However, VIL lost both rural and urban subscribers. The rural proportion now stands at 44%, 49% and 50% for Jio, Bharti and VIL, respectively.

Player-wise analysis

Bharti Airtel: It added 1mn subscribers overall, along with 2.2mn VLR subscribers. The telco’s VLR base had declined by 3.1mn in April. Its VLR proportion grew to 98% in May’22 from 97.7% in Apr’22. UP (E) and Bihar circles were the highest contributors to Bharti’s VLR base, while the Mumbai and Gujarat circles saw the maximum decline MoM. Bharti has added 1.8mn subscribers in April and May against our estimate of 2mn additions for Q1FY23.

Jio: Overall subscriber base grew by 3.1mn, its third-consecutive month of growth. VLR base also expanded by 4.5mn after a marginal decline in Apr’22. VLR proportion rose to 93.8% in May from 93.4% Apr’22. VLR subscriber market share improved further to 38% from 37% in Apr’22. UP (E), Bihar and WB circles saw the highest VLR additions, while AP and Mumbai circles saw the steepest fall. We are estimating 6mn subscriber adds for Q1FY23 vs its delivery of 4.8mn adds in April and May.

Vodafone-Idea: Subscriber base contracted by 0.8mn in May’22. Its VLR base also fell by 2.3mn as the VLR proportion declined to 85.1% from 85.8% in Apr’22. Delhi, Maharashtra and Mumbai circles saw the sharpest declines in VLR base, while UP (E and W) saw the highest increases in their VLR base.

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