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Jiophone launch takes effect; but Bharti not affected

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) released data for Mar’21. Here are the key highlights:

* Industry gross subscriber additions accelerated to 13.2m MoM (8.3m/~2m in Dec’20/FY21) to 1.18b in Mar’21, reflecting gains from the launch of Jiophone. Active subscriber additions too were healthy at 12m, reaching 994m, reversing the trend of low active gross subscribers for RJio, while the steady addition in Bharti continued.

* RJio’s monthly gross and active subscribers got a boost from the launch of Jiophone. It helped revive gross/active subscriber additions to 7.9m/7.4m v/s a muted 1-2m additions in the last 6-7 months, taking its total base to 423m/332m. Active subscriber share improved 30bp to 78.4% and saw a 40bp gain in market share to 33.4% after witnessing a 60bp decline in the last two months.

* Undeterred by Jiophone launch, Bharti continued its steady run-rate of 4.1m/4.8m gross/active subscriber additions (average additions of ~4m in the last 9-10 months) to 352m/344m in Mar’21. It maintained its top spot in terms of active subscriber market share (SMS) at 34.6%. Quality of subscriber additions is reflected in the higher activeto-gross subscriber addition ratio and strong 3.6m 4G subscriber additions.

* Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) gross subscriber additions remained positive for the second month in a row, after declining for 15 months on the trot, with 1.1m additions (to 284m subscribers). However, active subscribers continued to decline (-0.4m) since its integration in Nov’18.

* Industry 4G subscriber additions too got a push from the Jiophone launch, with 12.5m additions to 755m, with 4G subscribers now accounting for 75.9% (30bp addition) of active subscribers.

* Jiophone’s contribution helped RJio achieve stellar 4G additions at 7.9m, improving its 4G market share by 10bp to 56%. Bharti saw a limited impact, continuing its momentum of 3.6m additions. Incremental 4G market share could be over 40% for Bharti as per our workings, excluding Jiophone. VIL’s 4G additions though low, stood positive at 0.3m for the third consecutive month.

* Industry wired broadband subscribers declined 0.4m (after a surprise decline in Feb’21) to 22.8m. RJio/Bharti/smaller players continued to add 0.2m/0.1/0.2m subscribers.

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