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TRAI’s Jan’23 subscriber (subs) data shows industry’s MBB (mobile broadband — 3G+4G) subs addition was robust at 6.3mn in Jan’23, above the trend of ~5mn additions per month since May’22 (except for a moderate 1.6mn addition in Sep’22). MBB addition in Jan’23 continued to be strong for Bharti (2.8mn) and Jio (1.7mn), and it was decent even for VIL (1.1mn). Further, the industry’s active subs rose by a strong 4mn (following healthy recovery of 8.6mn in Dec’22 after a decline of 4.5mn in Nov’22) due to addition of 1.3mn/3.5mn for Bharti/Jio; however, active subs base continued to decline for VIL (0.5mn). Industry’s overall subs increased by a marginal 0.1mn in Jan’23, continuing the muted growth/declining trend since Dec’21.

Jio’s net subs rose for the 11th consecutive month (up 1.7mn in Jan’23); further, active subs rose by 3.5mn in Jan’23 following addition of 3.0mn in Dec’22. Hence, Jio’s VLR ratio recovered MoM to 92.6% in Jan’23 vs. 92.1% in Dec’22 (vs. peak of 94.0% in Feb’22, but it is significantly higher than sub-80% before Aug’21) and vs. 99.3% for Bharti and 87.2% for VIL. Bharti’s MBB subs addition was robust at 2.8mn in Jan’23; active subs addition was steady at 1.3mn. VIL’s MBB subs rose by a decent 1.1mn in Jan’23; however, decline in active subs continues (0.5mn). Separately, FTTH addition remained healthy for both Jio and Bharti.

* Jio’s net subs rises for the 11th consecutive month (up 1.7mn in Jan’23); active subs addition also robust: Jio’s net subs rose by 1.7mn in Jan’23 following a monthly increase ranging from 0.7mn to 3.3mn since Mar’22. Jio had reported a net subs loss of 3.7mn/9.3mn/12.9mn/19mn in Feb’22/Jan’22/Dec’21/Sep’21 due to sim consolidation post the Nov’21 tariff hike and repurposing of customer retention efforts for low-ARPU subscribers. Further, Jio’s active subs rose by 3.5mn in Jan’23, continuing the increasing trend of 3.0mn in Dec’22, and 4.9mn/1.4mn/2.5mn in Oct’22/Sep’22/Aug’22. Hence, Jio’s VLR ratio recovered MoM to 92.6% in Jan’23 vs. 92.1% in Dec’22 (vs. peak of 94.0% in Feb’22, but it is significantly higher than sub-80% before Aug’21) and vs. 99.3% for Bharti and 87.2% for VIL.

* Bharti’s MBB subs addition strong at 2.8mn in Jan’23; active subs addition steady at 1.3mn: Bharti’s MBB (mobile broadband – 3G+4G) subs addition continued to be strong at 2.8mn in Jan’23 after the company reported robust addition of 1.5-3mn each month in Feb-Dec’22 (except for a decline of 0.3mn in Apr’22). Further, Bharti’s active subs base went up by 1.3mn in Jan’23; it has seen healthy addition of 1-2mn each month since May’22 (except for 1.0mn decline each in Jul’22 and Oct’22); hence, its VLR ratio remained strong at 99.3% in Jan’23.

* VIL’s MBB subs up by a decent 1.1mn in Jan’23; however, decline in active subs continues: VIL’s MBB subs addition rose by a decent 1.1mn in Jan’23 (with Dec’21-Jan’23 cumulatively witnessing only 2.6mn rise in MBB subs). However, its active subs base declined by 0.5mn in Jan’23, continuing the declining trend over the past many months due to churn in the lower ARPU segments given the entry level prepaid tariff hikes undertaken in Jul’21 and Nov’21. Notwithstanding the moratoriums and recent tariff hikes, VIL needs to close the fund-raise exercise quickly for a meaningful increase in capex to boost upgrade of customers to MBB.

* Jio and Bharti’s robust FTTH addition continues: Jio’s FTTH subs additions continued to be robust at 0.19mn in Jan’23, though moderating vs. monthly addition of +0.25mn witnessed since the last few months (and below peak addition of 0.35mn in Apr’22). Further, Bharti’s FTTH subs addition was robust at 0.14mn in Jan’23 (vs. peak addition of 0.17mn in Jul’21).

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