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TRAI’s May’22 subscriber data shows a robust 2.8mn addition in the industry’s overall subscribers (subs) after having being on a declining/muted growth trend since Dec’21. Further, the industry’s MBB (Mobile Broadband — 3G+4G) subs rose by a strong 5.6mn in May’22 (with additions witnessed for all 3 private telcos), after muted additions since Dec’21 (except for 4.3mn addition in Mar’22). The industry’s active subs base also rose by a robust 3.9mn in May’22 — with Jio and Bharti adding active subs while VIL continued to lose active subs. Further, Jio and Bharti’s robust FTTH addition momentum continues in May’22.

Jio’s net subs rose for the 3 rd consecutive month, up 3.1mn in May’22; further, Jio’s active subs addition was strong at 4.5mn in May’22 (after muted additions in Mar-Apr’22), continuing the strong addition of 10.1mn in Feb’22 and ~4mn per month during Mar’21 to Jan’22. Jio’s VLR ratio is healthy at 93.8% in May’22 (sharply higher than sub-80% before Aug’21) vs. 98.0% for Bharti and 85.1% for VIL. Bharti’s MBB subs addition was robust at 1.9mn in May’22; further, active subs also rose by 2.2mn. VIL’s MBB subs addition was robust at 1.3mn in May’22; however, the decline in active subs continues.

* Jio’s net subs rose for the 3 rd consecutive month; active subs addition at 4.5mn was also strong in May’22: Jio’s net subs rose by 3.1mn in May’22 following an increase of 1.7mn/1.3mn in Apr’22/Mar'22; this is after having reported net subs loss of 3.7mn/9.3mn/12.9mn/19mn in Feb’22/Jan’22/Dec’21/Sep’21 due to sim consolidation post the Nov’21 tariff hike and repurposing of customer retention efforts for low-ARPU subscribers. Further, Jio’s active subs addition was strong at 4.5mn in May’22 (after muted additions in Mar-Apr’22), continuing the strong addition of 10.1mn in Feb’22 and ~4mn per month during Mar’21 to Jan’22. Jio’s VLR ratio is healthy at 93.8% in May’22 (sharply higher than sub-80% before Aug’21) vs. 98.0% for Bharti and 85.1% for VIL.

* Bharti’s MBB subs addition robust at 1.9mn; further, active subs also rose by 2.2mn in May’22: Bharti’s MBB (Mobile broadband – 3G+4G) subs rose by 1.9mn in May’22 (vs. decline of 0.3mn in Apr’22) after having reported robust addition of ~2mn each in FebMar’22. Some moderation in MBB subs addition is partly driven by limited availability of smartphones due to chip shortage, resulting in a rise in the average price of smartphones, as highlighted by the Bharti management during its 4QFY22 results concall. Further, Bharti’s active subs base rose by 2.2mn in May’22, after having declined by 3.1mn in Apr’22, probably indicating abatement of sim consolidation post the Nov’21 tariff hike.

* VIL’s MBB subs was robust at 1.3mn in May’22; however, decline in active subs continues: VIL’s MBB subs addition was robust at 1.3mn in May’22 vs. decline of 0.4mn in Apr’22 (after having added 0.5mn in Mar’22 and 0.9mn in Feb’22 while having reported ~2.9mn decline over Aug’21-Jan’22). However, its active subs base dipped by 2.3mn in May’22, continuing the declining trend over the past many months due to the outsized churn in the lower ARPU segments given the entry level prepaid tariff hikes undertaken in Jul’21 and Nov’21. We believe that despite the moratoriums and recent tariff hikes, VIL may have to close the ~INR 100bn equity fund-raise exercise from nonpromoters (with promoter having agreed to infuse INR 45bn) for a meaningful increase in capex to boost upgrade of customers to MBB.

* Robust FTTH additions continue for Jio and Bharti: Jio’s FTTH subs additions continued to be strong at 0.26mn in May’22 (vs. peak addition of 0.35mn in Apr’22). Further, Bharti’s FTTH subs were also robust at 0.11mn in May’22 (vs. peak addition of 0.17mn in Jul’21).

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