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USDINR

Strategy for coming week

Sell near 83.00

Stop Loss @ 83.40

View: Range bound

Target @ 82.30-82.40

The USDINR pair has reached the upper bound of the

consolidation, so we recommend selling near the resistance level,

with a stop loss placed at 83.40, and a target of 82.30-82.40

Technical Outlook on Rupee

• In the week that passed by the USDINR pair consolidates between 82.60 and 82.95, majorly because of the lack of driving factors.

• The RSI plotted on the daily chart has been range bound since the past couple sessions indicating lack of momentum in the pair.

• Looking at the price action in the recent past, the pair has been broadly range bound between 83.30 to 81.80. In the previous week we saw it consolidate between the 82.70 and 83.00. we might see the pair continues to be range bound unless either of the bounds are not breached

Fundamental news on USDINR

• The inflation data continues its downward trend, the headline CPI coming in at 3.2% (lower than the analyst estimates of 3.3%), pushed the bet of the FED hike lower. As per the CME FED WATCHTOOL, the bets of a pause is about 90.00%.

• The coming week we have the retail sales which is expected to tick higher. Then we have the FOMC minutes where in the traders will look for hints about the next move by the central bank.

EURINR

Strategy for coming week

Sell near 91.40

Stop Loss @ 91.80

View: Range bound

Target @ 90.50

The EURINR has been facing rejection near the 20 Day moving average. So, any move towards the 91.40 can be sold into with a stop loss of 91.80. On the downside we might see the pair move towards 90.50

Technical Outlook on EURINR

• In the previous week, the EURINR pair attempted to move above the 91.20 zone multiple times. But the strong selling pressure around that level, kept on pushing the pair lower.

• The RSI plotted on the daily chart has formed a bearish hinge and is moving lower, indictaing presence of bearishness in the pair.

• Going by the price action, the EURINR pair if the pair continues to face rejection near the 91.40 zone, we might see it move lower towards the 90.50 level. We recommend traders to maintain a strict stop loss of 91.80 on closing basis.

Fundamental news on EURINR

• In the week that passed by the Euro majorly followed the US Dollar for trend and direction.

• In the coming week, the Economic Calander for EU continues to be light, we only have the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is expected to worsen.

GBPINR 

Strategy for coming week

Buy near 105.00

Stop Loss @ 104.60

View: Bullish

Target @ 106.00-106.30

The GBPINR is bouncing off the 50-day moving average, so once can buy the pair on dips towards 105.00 with a stop loss of 104.60 and expected the pair to head higher towards 106.00-106.30

Technical Outlook on GBPINR

• Since the past couple of sessions, GBPINR has been trading between the 20 and the 50 Day moving averages..

• The RSI plotted on the daily chart has been hovering around the 50 mark, indicating lack of momentum in the pair.

• Going by the price action, the GBPINR pair has been consolidating between the 105.00 and 106.00 mark, we expect this consolidation to continue as long as the pair manages remains between the two moving averages. In such as situation we can use a classic range trading method, i.e buying near the support by keeping a stop loss a notch below the support and expect the pair to move higher towards the resistance.

Fundamental news on GBPINR

• In the week that passed by, we had the GDP data, which showed improvement. The actual reading not only came in significantly better than the previous reading but also managed to beat the analysts estimates.

• In the coming week we have the employment data like Claimant Count Change and the Average Earnings Index 3m/y, followed by the UK inflation, which is expected to cool off a bit.

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