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Gold yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 58853 as a cooler-than-expected CPI report backed market expectations that the Fed will refrain from hiking interest rates this year, raising demand for bonds in the secondary market. Consumer prices in the US rose by 3.2% annually, below expectations of a 3.3% rise, while the core gauge was also lower than expected at a 4.7% increase year-on-year. The U.S. labor market showed surprising weakness last week as the number of workers applying for first-time unemployment benefits rose well beyond market expectations. The U.S. Labor Department said that weekly jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 248,000 during the week ending Aug. 5, up from the previous week's unrevised estimate of 227,000 claims. Perth Mint's July gold product sales slumped to their lowest level since October 2020, while silver sales were at a more than three-year low, citing a slowdown in demand as prices surged. Monthly sales of gold coins and minted bars touched 44,009 ounces last month from 73,124 ounces in June, and were down about 45% on a year-on-year basis. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.01% to settle at 13788 while prices are down -120 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58670 and below same could see a test of 58487 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59091, a move above could see prices testing 59329.

Trading Ideas: 

# Gold trading range for the day is 58487-59329.

# Gold stabilizes as subdued CPI backs Fed's 2023 rate hike pause.

# Consumer prices in the US rose by 3.2% annually, below expectations of a 3.3% rise

# SPDR Gold ETF holdings drop to 5-month lows

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.01% at 69981 boosted by a U.S. consumer price index report that came in tamer than market expectations. The U.S. labor market showed surprising weakness last week as the number of workers applying for first-time unemployment benefits rose well beyond market expectations. The U.S. Labor Department said that weekly jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 248,000 during the week ending Aug. 5, up from the previous week's unrevised estimate of 227,000 claims. The latest labor market data was worse than expected. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see jobless claims rise only slightly to 230,000. The four-week moving average for new claims – often viewed as a more reliable measure of the labor market since it flattens week-to-week volatility – rose to 231,000, an increase of 2,750 claims from the previous week's unrevised average of 228,250. Perth Mint's July gold product sales slumped to their lowest level since October 2020, while silver sales were at a more than three-year low, citing a slowdown in demand as prices surged. Sales of silver products stood at their lowest since February 2020 at 863,485 ounces in July, down nearly 35% on a monthly basis and 65% on a yearly basis. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.03% to settle at 18326 while prices are up 9 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69585 and below same could see a test of 69190 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70512, a move above could see prices testing 71044.

Trading Ideas: 

# Silver trading range for the day is 69190-71044.

# Silver steadies as U.S. consumer price index eases market fears.

# The U.S. labor market showed surprising weakness last week

# The U.S. Labor Department said that weekly jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 248,000

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.81% at 6873 as markets assessed the outlook of muted demand against evidence of tight supply. The advance also came following the release of a report from the Energy Information Administration showing decreases in gasoline and distillate fuel inventories. Weekly ending crude oil stocks in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 995,000 barrels last week to 347.75 million barrels, the biggest weekly increase since June 2020, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. Energy Department has bought back some 6.3 million barrels of oil to refill the SPR in recent months, after the Biden administration released a record 180 million barrels from the reserve last year to control prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 5.9 million barrels in the last week to 445.6 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 159,000 barrels in the week to Aug 4, EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels in the week to 216.4 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations in a poll to be near flat. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -23.7% to settle at 6544 while prices are down -56 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6804 and below same could see a test of 6736 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6984, a move above could see prices testing 7096.

Trading Ideas: 

# Crude oil trading range for the day is 6736-7096.

# Crude oil fell as markets weighed subdued demand against signs of limited supply

# US crude oil stocks in SPR post biggest weekly increase since June 2020 – EIA

# US crude output to rise to record 12.76 mln bpd in 2023 – EIA

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -6.2% at 228.6 after concerns faded over tight liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply due to possible strikes at Australian facilities. U.S. natural gas production and demand will rise to record highs in 2023, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 103 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 104.12 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.13 bcfd in 2022. The agency also projected that domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 88.53 bcfd in 2022 to 89.34 bcfd in 2023 before sliding to 87.88 bcfd in 2024. US utilities likely added 29 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into storage during the week ended August 4, 2023, more than market expectations of a 25 billion cubic feet increase. That compares with a 44-bcf injection during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 46 bcf. Last week's increase lifted stockpiles to 3.030 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 535 bcf higher than last year at this time and 305 bcf above the five-year average of 2.725 tcf. At 3.030 tcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.64% to settle at 24151 while prices are down -15.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 221.4 and below same could see a test of 214.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 242.3, a move above could see prices testing 256.1.

Trading Ideas: 

# Natural gas trading range for the day is 214.3-256.1.

# Nat Gas fell as worries eased over constrained LNG supply from Australian strikes

# US utilities added 29 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into storage

# US natural gas stocks rise more than expected: EIA

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 728.7 amid persisting hopes of further Chinese stimulus measures. Data showed deflation in consumer prices and further declines for factory gate prices in China, adding to hopes that Beijing would boost policy stimulus. Data showed that China’s consumer inflation dropped 0.3% in July from a year ago earlier, less than market decrease. Chinese authorities pledged to ramp up policy support to boost a flagging economy, but the lack of concrete plans and forceful measures disappointed markets. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates in June for the first time in ten months, but decided to keep rates unchanged at their July fixings. Both Chinese imports and exports contracted more than expected in July, while year-to-date copper imports slid by 10.7% to reflect a sharp downturn in demand for industrial inputs. The results follow contractionary manufacturing PMI readings and fresh signs of stress in property developers' financial stability, further clouding industrial activity. Still, the decline was limited by concerns that lower supply will coincide with higher demand for copper-intensive sustainable infrastructure in coming years, risking wide shortages. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.79% to settle at 5754 while prices are down -3.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 725.2 and below same could see a test of 721.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 735, a move above could see prices testing 741.1.

Trading Ideas: 

# Copper trading range for the day is 721.5-741.1.

# Copper dropped despite amid persisting hopes of further Chinese stimulus measures.

# Data showed deflation in consumer prices and further declines for factory gate prices in China

# State-owned Chilean miner Codelco raised its output projections by 70,000 tonnes to 1.31-1.35 million tonnes this year

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 221.2 as inventories in LME-registered warehouses paused their August decline. On-warrant stocks rose to a three-week high of 71,525 metric tons, daily LME data showed. The discount on the LME cash contract to three-month zinc swung to a premium in early August in a sign of tighter near-term supply in the LME system. The premium was at $36.50 a ton at Wednesday's market close for its highest since Feb. 20. LME inventory continues to rebound, and fundamental weakness has become a foregone conclusion. The dollar strengthened after a survey from the Federal Reserve showed U.S. banks reported tighter credit standards and weaker loan demand during the second quarter, a sign rising interest rates are having an impact on the economy. Global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%, considering a low base year and as energy costs in Europe ease, while power curbs in China limit zinc smelter production. The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.44% to settle at 3425 while prices are down -1.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 219.7 and below same could see a test of 218.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 223.4, a move above could see prices testing 225.5.

Trading Ideas: 

# Zinc trading range for the day is 218.1-225.5.

# Zinc fell as LME inventories paused their August decline.

# On-warrant stocks rose to a three-week high of 71,525 metric tons, daily LME data showed.

# The discount on the LME cash contract to three-month zinc swung to a premium in early August in a sign of tighter near-term supply

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 878.5 amid rise in supplies of new crop. Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up. Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.22% to settle at 932 while prices are down -4.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 875.8 and below same could see a test of 873.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 882.6, a move above could see prices testing 886.7.

Trading Ideas: 

# Mentha oil trading range for the day is 873.1-886.7.

# Menthaoil prices dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop.

# Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up.

# Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition.

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.42% at 16844 on profit booking amid improved crop condition. Losses in turmeric is likely to be capped by limited availability of quality produce in the market. Ongoing sowing and crop progress is major price driver for turmeric and forecast of drier weather in southern and central region has added worries to turmeric crops. Sowing activities almost completed in Maharashtra and likely to pick up in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu but erratic monsoon rainfall has impacted the sowing progress. The looming threat of El Nino casts a shadow over the upcoming turmeric crop. Meteorological predictions suggest the activation of El Nino in July, potentially resulting in reduced rainfall and drought conditions. Such conditions could particularly impact yields, like turmeric, that heavily rely on monsoon irrigation. Farmers shift in focus has led to expectations of a 20-25 percent decrease in turmeric sowing this year, notably in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 14543.05 Rupees gained 130.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.77% to settle at 15300 while prices are down -242 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 16674 and below same could see a test of 16502 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 17134, a move above could see prices testing 17422.

Trading Ideas: 

# Turmeric trading range for the day is 16502-17422.

# Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid improved crop condition.

# Losses in turmeric is likely to be capped by limited availability of quality produce in the market.

# In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.

# In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 14543.05 Rupees gained 130.8 Rupees.

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 62625 in wake of improved global supply condition. Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days. Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move. China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -463.55 Rupees to end at 61741.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.38% to settle at 6318 while prices are down -455 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 62280 and below same could see a test of 61940 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63180, a move above could see prices testing 63740.

Trading Ideas: 

# Jeera trading range for the day is 61940-63740.

# Jeera prices remained under pressure in wake of improved global supply condition.

# Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days.

# The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season

# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -463.55 Rupees to end at 61741.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

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