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Gold

yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 59189 on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely end its monetary tightening cycle after a widely expected rate hike this week. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 117 this month, up from June's revised reading of 110.1. The report said consumer optimism is at its highest level since July 2021. Chinese officials said they plan to implement stimulus measures to support its ailing property sector. The move was seen as disappointing by China watchers, who wanted more stimulus action in the broader economy. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell by about 29% in June from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports into the world's top gold consumer stood at 34.648 metric tons in June, compared with 49.056 metric tons in May, as per the data. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were down 26% at 38.395 metric tons. The focus is on a series of central bank meetings this week, starting from the Fed policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday and the Bank of Japan a day later. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.51% to settle at 4861 while prices are up 113 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59005 and below same could see a test of 58820 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59320, a move above could see prices testing 59450.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58820-59450.
* Gold steadied on expectations that Fed will likely end its monetary tightening cycle.
* US consumer confidence index rose to 117 this month, up from June's revised reading of 110.1.
* Chinese officials said they plan to implement stimulus measures to support its ailing property sector.



Silver

yesterday settled up by 0.91% at 74773 amid strong industrial demand and signs of tight supply limited. Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption, compared to 5% in 2014, and driving an expected 4% increase in consumption this year. The figure compares to a slower 2% rise in output, flagging fresh supply deficit concerns. The world economy is expected to expand by 3% in 2023, which has been revised upwards from the April assessment's 2.8% growth, according to the latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook. However, it still remains weak by historical standards due to the impact of central bank policy rate increases aimed at combating inflation. The 2024 projection was unchanged at 3%. The IMF also stated its expectation for global inflation to decline to 6.8% in 2023 and further to 5.2% in 2024, while the core rate is projected to decrease at a more gradual pace. In terms of individual economies, the US economy is predicted to grow by 1.8% this year and 1% in 2024. In the Euro Area, GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2023 before picking up to 1.5% in 2024. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.6% to settle at 17174 while prices are up 677 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74261 and below same could see a test of 73750 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75223, a move above could see prices testing 75674.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73750-75674.
* Silver gains amid strong industrial demand and signs of tight supply limited
* The yield on the US-10-year Treasury note topped 3.9% in the last week of July, the highest in two weeks
* IMF raises 2023 global growth forecast



Crude oil

yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 6529 amid signs of tight supplies and China stimulus optimism. China optimism lent some support after policymakers promised steps to shore up growth in the world's second-largest economy by supporting real estate and other sectors. The oil market remains supported by output cuts from OPEC+, with the group signaling readiness to take additional measures if needed. On the demand side, China pledged to ramp up policy support for its flagging economy, with a focus on boosting domestic demand and helping the ailing property market. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to July 18, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 46,701 contracts to 152,812 during the period. In the United States, business activity slowed to a five-month low in July, a closely watched survey showed, but falling input prices and slower hiring indicate the Federal Reserve could be making progress on its bid to reduce inflation. Markets anticipate 25-basis-point rate hikes from both the Fed and the European Central Bank this week. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.86% to settle at 10767 while prices are up 68 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6451 and below same could see a test of 6373 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6572, a move above could see prices testing 6615.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6373-6615.
* Crudeoil rose amid signs of tight supplies and China stimulus optimism.
* Oil market remains supported by output cuts from OPEC+, with the group signaling readiness to take additional measures if needed.
* Speculators raise U.S. crude oil net longs – CFTC



Nat.Gas

yesterday settled up by 1.35% at 224.5 on a drop in daily output and forecasts for the weather to remain hotter than normal through early August, especially in Texas. That price increase occurred despite forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell by 2 this week to 131, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 3.0 bcfd to a preliminary four-month low of 98.9 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Texas, Pennsylvania and Colorado. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 9. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 105.8 bcfd this week to 107.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.03% to settle at 25047 while prices are up 3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 220.6 and below same could see a test of 216.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 228, a move above could see prices testing 231.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 216.6-231.4.
* Natural gas climbed on a drop in daily output
* That price increase occurred despite forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* US natgas rig count fell 2 at 131 – Baker Hughes




Copper

yesterday settled up by 1.49% at 740.55 driven by prospects of a demand recovery after China's commitment to providing further support. Beijing recently announced plans to bolster economic policy adjustments, with a focus on expanding domestic demand. Additionally, measures to support private investment and develop underdeveloped areas in megacities were unveiled by China's state planner earlier. Elsewhere, concerns about shortages have also contributed to the price surge. In May, copper output in top producer Chile declined by 14% year-on-year, signaling potential supply constraints as the metal plays a crucial role in the world's transition to sustainable energy sources. The global refined copper market showed a 65,000 metric tons deficit in May, compared with a 33,000 metric tons surplus in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 5 months of the year, the market was in a 287,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 74,000 metric tons deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in May was 2.32 million metric tons , while consumption was 2.38 million metric tons. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.98% to settle at 4371 while prices are up 10.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 735.1 and below same could see a test of 729.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 744, a move above could see prices testing 747.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 729.6-747.4.
* Copper gains on China stimulus pledge
* Beijing recently announced plans to bolster economic policy adjustments, with a focus on expanding domestic demand.
* Copper output in top producer Chile declined by 14% year-on-year, signaling potential supply constraints



Zinc

yesterday settled up by 1.97% at 219.65 after top consumer China pledged to step up policy support for the economy, focusing on boosting domestic demand. China's top leaders signalled there would be more to come for the property sector that consumes a vast amount of metals. China's promises to step up economy support, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive for Chinese buyers. The markets are awaiting rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank later this week and anticipate 25 basis point rate hikes from both the central banks, but beyond that pricing diverges from policymakers' rhetoric. The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first five months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 267,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 189,000 tons in the same period of 2022. The world economy is expected to expand by 3% in 2023, which has been revised upwards from the April assessment's 2.8% growth, according to the latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 21.29% to settle at 3743 while prices are up 4.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 217 and below same could see a test of 214.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221, a move above could see prices testing 222.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 214.4-222.4.
* Zinc gains with reinforced Chinese stimulus hopes
* Global zinc market surplus falls to 53,000 metric tons in May – ILZSG
* China's top leaders signalled there would be more to come for the property sector that consumes a vast amount of metals.




Aluminium

yesterday settled up by 1.09% at 199.7 supported by pledges from Chinese leaders to shore up economic growth in the world's biggest metals consumer. Global primary aluminium output rose by 1.8% year-on-year to 34.212 million metric tons in the first half of 2023 mainly due to higher production in China, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. The data indicates that energy-intensive production of the metal, used in transportation, construction and packaging, remains subdued in Europe after last year's energy crisis and is probably under pressure in sanctions-hit Russia. China's estimated production rose by 2.8% to 20.250 million metric tons in January-June, the IAI said. Aluminium output in Western and Central Europe which was hit by a jump in energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 is yet to recover, the region produced 1.345 million metric tons, down 9.2%. The world economy is expected to expand by 3% in 2023, which has been revised upwards from the April assessment's 2.8% growth, according to the latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook. However, it still remains weak by historical standards due to the impact of central bank policy rate increases aimed at combating inflation. The 2024 projection was unchanged at 3%. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.85% to settle at 3457 while prices are up 2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198 and below same could see a test of 196.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 201, a move above could see prices testing 202.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.1-202.1.
* Aluminium price rises on China stimulus pledge
* Higher production in China drove global aluminium output up 1.8% in H1
* The world economy is expected to expand by 3% in 2023, which has been revised upwards from the April assessment's 2.8% growth



Mentha oil

yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 885.4 amid rise in supplies of new crop. Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up. Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1.8 Rupees to end at 1021.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.28% to settle at 887 while prices are down -2.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 881.4 and below same could see a test of 877.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 892.2, a move above could see prices testing 899.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 877.4-899.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1.8 Rupees to end at 1021.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop.
* Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up.
* Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition.



Turmeric

yesterday settled up by 5.99% at 13584 driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 11788.25 Rupees dropped -94.55 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.25% to settle at while prices are up 768 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 13036 and below same could see a test of 12486 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13860, a move above could see prices testing 14134.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12486-14134.
* Turmeric prices rose driven by consistent demand and supply shortage
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 11788.25 Rupees dropped -94.55 Rupees.



Jeera

yesterday settled down by -0.91% at 59920 on profit booking after prices rose as arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan have decreased due to heavy rainfall. Farmers need assistance to bring their produce to the market. However, after the rains subside, cumin arrivals are expected to increase, potentially impacting market dynamics. Support also seen due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -223.4 Rupees to end at 61139.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.27% to settle at while prices are down -550 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 59040 and below same could see a test of 58165 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61090, a move above could see prices testing 62265.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 58165-62265.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after rise seen as arrivals decreased due to heavy rainfall.
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -223.4 Rupees to end at 61139.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

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