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Gold

yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 47917 as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthened a day after dismal U.S. private payrolls data sent bullion prices to one-week highs. U.S. Federal Reserve officials have signalled they will start raising interest rates next month to fight high inflation. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were slightly up, while the dollar index firmed against its rivals. Investors now await Friday's closely watched non-farm payroll figures after ADP data showed U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly fell last month. The European Central Bank kept policy unchanged as expected, curbing stimulus over the coming months but maintaining plenty of support for the economy even after inflation unexpectedly hit a fresh record high. "The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term," the ECB said. "Flexibility will remain an element of monetary policy whenever threats to monetary policy transmission jeopardise the attainment of price stability," it added. Markets already doubt the ECB projections and are pricing in 28 basis points of rate hikes this year, despite the bank's insistence that any move in 2022 is very unlikely. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.72% to settled at 11635 while prices down -167 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47656 and below same could see a test of 47396 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48120, a move above could see prices testing 48324.

Trading Ideas:
# Gold trading range for the day is 47396-48324.
# Gold prices eased as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthened
# U.S. Federal Reserve officials have signalled they will start raising interest rates next month to fight high inflation.
# BoE hikes rates in clamour to contain inflation
 

Silver

yesterday settled down by -1.25% at 60732 as the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week as COVID-19 infections subsided, suggesting that an anticipated slowdown in job growth in January was likely temporary. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 for the week ended Jan. 29, the Labor Department said. Claims increased from the beginning of January through the middle of the month amid an onslaught of coronavirus infections, driven by the Omicron variant. Business activity, especially in the services sector, was impacted by the latest wave. The ADP National Employment report showed private payrolls declined in January for the first time in a year, raising a strong possibility that the overall economy shed jobs last month. Investors jitter tightening prospects from major central banks around the world, specially from the Fed while stubbornly high inflation and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine could prevent big losses. As expected, the ECB left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0%, while confirming the decisions taken at its December meeting of reducing the pace of net asset purchases under the PEPP and discontinuing the scheme in March. The Bank of England raised its key Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.5% during its February 2022 meeting, in line with expectations. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.64% to settled at 16021 while prices down -771 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 59990 and below same could see a test of 59247 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61437, a move above could see prices testing 62141.

Trading Ideas:
# Silver trading range for the day is 59247-62141.
# Silver dropped as the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week
# Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 for the week ended Jan. 29
# The ADP National Employment report showed private payrolls declined in January for the first time in a year

Crude oil

yesterday settled up by 0.97% at 6641 as concerns about possible supply disruptions outweighed OPEC+'s decision to increase crude output in March. OPEC+ agreed to raise oil output by 400,000 barrels per day in March, as widely expected. OPEC+ agreed to stick to moderate rises in its oil output with the group already struggling to meet existing targets and wary of responding to calls on its strained capacity for more crude from top consumers to cap surging prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+ which produces more than 40% of global oil supply, has faced calls from the United States, India and others to pump more oil as economies recover from the pandemic. U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories fell last week as fuel demand increased to its highest level since August 2019, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels in the week to Jan. 28 to 415.1 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.5 million-barrel rise. Investors are also closely monitoring developments over Ukraine, as a conflict between Russia and the West can potentially upend energy flows. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 37.42% to settled at 12221 while prices up 64 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6534 and below same could see a test of 6426 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6717, a move above could see prices testing 6792.

Trading Ideas:
# Crude oil trading range for the day is 6426-6792.
# Crude oil prices moved up as concerns about possible supply disruptions outweighed OPEC+'s decision to increase crude output in March.
# OPEC+ agreed to raise oil output by 400,000 barrels per day in March, as widely expected.
# OPEC+ sticks to planned output rises despite oil price rally

Nat.Gas

yesterday settled down by -9.68% at 369.3 as the risk of a potential freeze in natural gas wells in South Central US more than offset earlier reports of milder weather. Meteorologists warned of intensifying cold anomalies headed for Texas this week, which fueled concerns over severe output disruptions, as natural gas wells could freeze again. Additionally, the consistent cold weather in Central and Eastern US during January could have caused inventories to shrink significantly. Elsewhere, tensions remained high in Eastern Europe after Putin said the US ignored Russia’s demands on Ukraine, while Western leaders are expected to finalize a package of sanctions against Russia. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 144.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last week to 136.1 bcfd this week, before rising to 138.5 bcfd next week as weather turns cold again. Refinitiv said average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 93.9 bcfd in January from a record 97.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December. Output dipped after wells in several regions froze, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -48.98% to settled at 5027 while prices down -39.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 352 and below same could see a test of 334.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 395.6, a move above could see prices testing 421.9.
 

Trading Ideas:

# Natural gas trading range for the day is 334.7-421.9.
# Natural gas dropped on forecasts calling for a little less cold and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
# European gas demand seen falling this year due to cheaper coal-IEA
# The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States rose by 2 this week to 115

Copper

yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 753.95 as global copper smelting activity powered to a 13-month peak in January as operations in China ramped up ahead of seasonal construction demand. Chilean state-owned Codelco's copper production rose 4.3% year-on-year in December to 164,600 tons and the Collahuasi copper mine – a joint venture by Glencore and Anglo American – saw output increase 12.9% to 49,900 tons, the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported. Meanwhile extraction at BHP's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, fell 17.6% in December to 86,400 tons. Rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine have fuelled market anxiety about metals supply, driving a market rally recently, as the United States has threatened to hit commodities powerhouse Russia with economic sanctions. Mining giant Grupo Mexico said that global copper demand will grow 3% in 2022. It added the projection could be impacted by an expected economic slowdown in China due to real estate industry hurdles, the coronavirus Omicron variant and uncertainty over production growth in Chile and Peru, which together represent about 40% of global supply. At the same time, January PMI data showed that factory activity grew strongly in the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, and Russia as supply-chain bottlenecks eased and production and order book improved. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.84% to settled at 3322 while prices down -2.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 749.1 and below same could see a test of 744.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 758.9, a move above could see prices testing 763.8.
 

Trading Ideas:

# Copper trading range for the day is 744.2-763.8.
# Copper prices dropped as global copper smelting activity powered to a 13-month peak in January as operations in China ramped up
# Codelco, Collahuasi copper mine production up in December – Chile's Cochilco
# Mining giant Grupo Mexico said that global copper demand will grow 3% in 2022.

Zinc

yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 297.4 as investors remain cautious ahead of the payrolls report on Friday and wonder what the tightening path from the Fed will be. Zinc premiums in Europe reached new highs during the week amid an acute lack of availability in the spot market, while those in the United States held at record high levels. Special high-grade (SHG) zinc premiums in Northern Europe rose for the fourth consecutive week, amid higher indications from participants. The global zinc market deficit edged lower to 19,700 tonnes in November from a revised shortfall of 22,100 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 6,100 tonnes in October. During the first 11 months of 2021, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 126,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 479,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. The year has not got off to a good start for European zinc buyers. Premiums for physical zinc are at record highs as the market scrambles for metal after the closure of a second zinc smelter due to high power costs. Nyrstar is placing its Auby smelter in France on care and maintenance citing "historically high" European electricity prices which show no signs of abating. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.39% to settled at 1291 while prices down -1.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 296 and below same could see a test of 294.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 299.4, a move above could see prices testing 301.2.
 

Trading Ideas:

# Zinc trading range for the day is 294.4-301.2.
# Zinc dropped as investors remain cautious ahead of the payrolls report on Friday and wonder what the tightening path from the Fed will be.
# European zinc premiums stretch to new highs
# No offers reported in Europe, but premium continues to rise amid scarcity sentiment.

Nickel

yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 1730.7 as markets in top metals consumer China were shut for a week-long holiday and a slide in the U.S. dollar paused. Renewed demand and limited promptly available inventories in both Europe and the United States boosted nickel premiums. Strong demand across all nickel products sends European premiums upward. Thin inventories and renewed spot interest drive US briquette premium to new heights. Nickel premiums rise across the board in Europe on strong demand. Premiums for nickel have risen within Europe after demand increases within the region across all products. The global nickel market saw a deficit of 3,000 tonnes in November compared with a shortfall of 1,600 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first 11 months of the year, there was a deficit in the nickel market of 167,600 tonnes compared with a surplus of 92,500 tonnes in the same period of the previous year, the Lisbon-based INSG added. Inventories in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to 89,364 tonnes from around 250,000 tonnes a year ago and stocks in ShFE warehouses, at 2,975 tonnes, are the lowest on record. Lack of available supply pushed the premium for cash nickel over the three-month contract above $500 a tonne for the first time since 2009. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.76% to settled at 2467 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1725 and below same could see a test of 1719.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1736.5, a move above could see prices testing 1742.4.
 

Trading Ideas:

# Nickel trading range for the day is 1719.4-1742.4.
# Nickel dropped as markets in top metals consumer China were shut for a week-long holiday and a slide in the U.S. dollar paused.
# European, US nickel premiums climb on renewed demand, inventory tightness
# The global nickel market saw a deficit of 3,000 tonnes in November compared with a shortfall of 1,600 tonnes a month earlier
 

Aluminium

yesterday settled up by 1.14% at 243.15 as rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine have fuelled market anxiety about aluminium supply, as the United States has threatened to hit major producer Russia with economic sanctions. Electricity costs in Europe remain elevated despite recent ease in natural gas and coal prices, prompting smelters including Norsk Hydro, Aluminium Dunkerque, and Alcoa to cut production. Stockpiles of aluminum in warehouses approved by the LME fell to less than 850,000 tons, the lowest level since 2007. At the same time, tensions between the US and Russia over Ukraine brought the possibility of sanctions on Russian aluminum producers. Global primary aluminium output fell 1.25% year on year in December to 5.622 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production declined to 3.192 million tonnes in December versus 3.3 million tonnes in the same month in 2020, the IAI said. China's aluminium imports in December eased from the previous month, snapping three monthly gains, although imported volumes were strong enough to solidify 2021's position as a record year of shipments. China, the world's biggest aluminium producer and consumer, imported 3.2 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products – which include primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium – in 2021, a new record high and up from 2.7 million tonnes in 2020. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.3% to settled at 2255 while prices up 2.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 241 and below same could see a test of 238.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 244.5, a move above could see prices testing 245.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
# Aluminium trading range for the day is 238.9-245.9.
# Aluminium gains as rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine have fuelled market anxiety about aluminium supply
# Stockpiles of aluminum in warehouses approved by the LME fell to less than 850,000 tons, the lowest level since 2007
# At the same time, tensions between the US and Russia over Ukraine brought the possibility of sanctions on Russian aluminum producers.

Mentha oil

yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 972.1 as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster. There is an explosive situation of infection in seven states of the country. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, this curiosity arises in the mind whether there will be a lock down in the country. Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15% led by growth of Covid-19 products in the last one year as against a single digit growth of 3% shown last year, according to Indian pharmaceutical market research company Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd in its latest report. Also as per the latest news going viral in market is that Mandi Tax has been exempted for exports and the orders have been sent to all Mandi Sectt offices district wise, while trader are waiting for complete information on same. Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices. Also the FMCG makers also expect that a sudden increase in COVID cases and some restrictions imposed by local authorities in some states would again impact the demand for out of home' channels products, which was recovering from the last few months, though demand for home consumption and immunity products is going to gain for few weeks. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -21.6 Rupees to end at 1100.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.32% to settled at 1049 while prices down -2.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 967.8 and below same could see a test of 963.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 977.1, a move above could see prices testing 982.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
# Mentha oil trading range for the day is 963.5-982.1.
# In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -21.6 Rupees to end at 1100.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
# Mentha oil prices dropped as sentiments dropped with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster.
# Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15%.
# Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices.
 

Turmeric

yesterday settled up by 2.06% at 9814 amid crop damage due to heavy rains and cyclones this year. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year, but higher by 6.5% over the 5-year average. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9321.45 Rupees dropped -30.8 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.14% to settled at 9840 while prices up 198 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9616 and below same could see a test of 9416 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9940, a move above could see prices testing 10064.
 

Trading Ideas:

# Turmeric trading range for the day is 9416-10064.
# Turmeric prices gained amid crop damage due to heavy rains and cyclones this year.
# Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
# The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra.
# In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9321.45 Rupees dropped -30.8 Rupees.

Jeera

yesterday settled up by 4.13% at 19900 after the news that China export started again while export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival. Support seen amid rise in export demand, the decline in the 2020-21 production as well as carryover stock estimates kept trade sentiments strong. The export of cumin seeds declined by 20% year-on-year to 1.61 lakh tonnes in April-November, from 2.02 lakh tonnes in the previous year. There is a possibility of damage to the cumin crop due to rain and cloudy sky. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. Exports of Indian cumin usually decrease after July-August every year when Turkey and Syria used to supply the global consumers. The estimated jeera production for the crop year 2020-21 may be lower by 30-35% on account of decline in sown area and lower yield (because of adverse weather prevailing) in the major producing states Gujarat and Rajasthan. The cropped area has fallen due to a shift towards other crops like cotton, soybean and mustard, which offered lucrative returns last year. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days, the export sales are expected to continue with greater quantity. The carry forward inventory is pegged lower versus last year, as consumption is likely to remain stable while production estimate is revised lower. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 88.25 Rupees to end at 19005.9 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.77% to settled at 10443 while prices up 790 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 19270 and below same could see a test of 18645 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 20330, a move above could see prices testing 20765.
 

Trading Ideas:

# Jeera trading range for the day is 18645-20765.
# Jeera gained after the news that China export started again while export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost
# The export of cumin seeds declined by 20% year-on-year to 1.61 lakh tonnes in April-November, from 2.02 lakh tonnes in the previous year.
# The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability.
# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 88.25 Rupees to end at 19005.9 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 37390 amid the low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP). Cotton arrivals from October 2021 till 01st February 2022 is reported 36% higher from the same period in last year. An official of the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), said unseasonal rains in September last year followed by pink bollworm attack had not only hit the yield, but also affected the crop’s quality. Overseas demand for cotton candy or ginned cotton and cotton yarn is robust, contributing to an all-time high price for the commodity. In the current season, cotton acreage in the Gujarat stood at 22.53 lakh hectare in the kharif season 2021-22 as against 22.78 lakh hectares in the previous season, with an average of 25.53 lakh hectares recorded over the previous three years. As per the Gujarat government’s First Advanced Estimate (FAE), cotton production in Gujarat at 80.95 lakh bales, each containing 170 kg of seed-cotton, is almost as normal as last year’s. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -140 Rupees to end at 37330 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.61% to settled at 6346 while prices up 220 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37070 and below same could see a test of 36740 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37610, a move above could see prices testing 37820.
 

Trading Ideas:

# Cotton trading range for the day is 36740-37820.
# Cotton gained amid the low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack
# Unseasonal rains in September last year followed by pink bollworm attack had not only hit the yield, but also affected the crop’s quality.
# Overseas demand for cotton candy or ginned cotton and cotton yarn is robust, contributing to an all-time high price for the commodity.
# In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -140 Rupees to end at 37330 Rupees.