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Gold 

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 52336 buoyed by a softer dollar as investors bet tamer U.S. inflation indicators may prompt less aggressive interest rate hikes. Investors took stock of data showing U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in July amid a drop in the cost for energy products, with underlying producer inflation appearing to be on a downward trend. But some of that optimism faded after Fed policymakers noted that they would continue to tighten monetary policy until price pressures were fully broken. Meanwhile, U.S. weekly jobless claims rose for second straight week, the Labor Department said, indicating some softening in the labor market. U.S. consumer prices did not rise in July due to a sharp drop in the cost of gasoline, delivering the first notable sign of relief for Americans who have watched inflation climb over the past two years. Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said that he continues to believe that the U.S. central bank will need to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023 to fight inflation. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans remained more hawkish than financial markets, expecting that U.S. rates will top out at 4% next year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.14% to settled at 16135 while prices up 95 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52060 and below same could see a test of 51784 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52566, a move above could see prices testing 52796.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 51784-52796.

* Gold prices edged up buoyed by a softer dollar as investors bet tamer U.S. inflation indicators may prompt less aggressive interest rate hikes.

* U.S. weekly jobless claims rise for second straight week

*  U.S. producer prices fall in July
 

Silver 

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 58377 weighed down by profit taking and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers. Fed officials signaled resolve in raising interest rates aggressively to convincingly tame inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that he expects the central bank to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by end of 2023, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that US rates will top out at 4% next year. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose for the second straight week, indicating further softening in the labor market despite still tight conditions as the Federal Reserve tries to slow demand to help tame inflation. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 262,000 for the week ended Aug. 6, the Labor Department said. U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in July amid a drop in the cost for energy products and underlying producer inflation appears to be on a downward trend, while jobless claims rose for a second straight week in a labor market that remains tight. The producer price index for final demand declined 0.5% last month, the first negative monthly reading since April 2020, the Labor Department said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.62% to settled at 15512 while prices down -583 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 58035 and below same could see a test of 57694 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58881, a move above could see prices testing 59386.

Trading Ideas:

*  Silver trading range for the day is 57694-59386.

* Silver dropped weighed down by profit taking and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers.

* Fed officials signaled resolve in raising interest rates aggressively to convincingly tame inflation.

* Fed’s Kashkari said that he expects the central bank to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by end of 2023

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.25% at 7526 after the International Energy Agency raised its oil demand growth forecast for this year as soaring gas prices drive some consumers to switch to oil. A rise in U.S. oil inventories last week and the resumption of crude flows on a pipeline supplying central Europe capped further price gains, however. U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 5.5 million barrels in the most recent week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, more than the expected increase of 73,000 barrels. Gasoline product supplied rose in the most recent week to 9.1 million barrels per day, though that figure still shows demand down 6% over the past four weeks compared with the year-ago period. The premium for front-month WTI futures over barrels loading in six months' time was pegged at $4.38 a barrel, the lowest in four months, indicating easing tightness in prompt supplies. The resumption of flows on the southern leg of the Russia-to-Europe Druzhba pipeline further calmed market worries over global supply. Russian state oil pipeline monopoly Transneft restarted oil flows via the southern leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline. Ukraine had suspended Russian oil pipeline flows to parts of central Europe since early this month because Western sanctions prevented it from receiving transit fees from Moscow, Transneft said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.94% to settled at 5535 while prices up 237 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7341 and below same could see a test of 7155 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7632, a move above could see prices testing 7737.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7155-7737.

* Crude oil rises as IEA hikes 2022 demand growth forecast

* Switch from gas boosts oil demand but economic headwinds loom – IEA

* A rise in U.S. oil inventories last week and the resumption of crude flows on a pipeline supplying central Europe capped further price gains
 

Nat.Gas ???????

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 7.98% at 698.5 with daily output on track to decline for a third day in a row and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price increase came despite a bigger-than-expected storage build as an ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas leaves more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Demand from Europe remains strong as the critical Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany is currently running at 20% capacity. Russia has already halted shipments to Demark, Finland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Poland and reduced supplies to Germany for not consenting to its natural gas payments demand in Russian rubles. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 44 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 5. That was more than the 39-bcf build forecast and compares with an increase of 44 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 45 bcf. Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 43.14% to settled at 6377 while prices up 51.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 666.1 and below same could see a test of 633.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 718, a move above could see prices testing 737.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 633.7-737.5.

* Natural gas rose with daily output on track to decline for a third day in a row and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Demand from Europe remains strong as the critical Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany is currently running at 20% capacity.

* EIA said utilities added 44 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 5.
 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.71% at 681.1 lifted by tight inventories across base metals and lower-than-expected US inflation numbers for July. Copper stockpiles in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange were at their lowest since January 21, while London Metals Exchange inventories of the commodity fell to their lowest since June 29 and down 30% since May. China's copper cathode output in July rose slightly from prior month, as production in some key regions started to pick up after maintenance shutdowns. Production at 22 smelters was at 790,100 tonnes last month, up 1.7% from 777,000 tonnes seen in June. Smelters in the eastern Shandong province, northwestern region Xinjiang and northern region Inner Mongolia's Chifeng City ramped up their production, while output in some areas, such as north-central Gansu province and southern region Guangxi, remained affected by maintenance shutdowns. In the first seven months of 2022, the surveyed smelters made 5.41 million tonnes of copper cathode, up 3% on an annual basis. Meanwhile, US consumer price growth slowed to 8.5% in July 2022 from 9.1% in June amid a significant drop in gasoline prices, raising speculations for a less aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. However, US central bank officials pushed back against such expectations and reiterated their commitment to keep raising interest rates until they see compelling evidence that inflation sustainably abates. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.87% to settled at 5353 while prices up 11.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 674.2 and below same could see a test of 667.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 684.8, a move above could see prices testing 688.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 667.3-688.5.

* Copper rose lifted by tight inventories across base metals and lower-than-expected US inflation numbers for July.

* Copper stockpiles in SHFE warehouses were at their lowest since January 21, while LME inventories fell to their lowest since June 29

* China's July copper output climbs from prior month

Zinc 

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.17% at 327.3 as lower-than-expected U.S. inflation eased worries of aggressive rate hikes that could hurt growth and metals demand. Refined zinc production at Glencore's European operations fell by 47,500 tonnes year-on-year to 350,900 tonnes in the first six months of 2022. That mainly reflected the idling of the main production line at Portovesme, although the Italian plant's recycling activities continue for now. Europe's power woes and a string of smelter problems elsewhere caused global output to slide by almost 2% in the first five months of 2022, according to the latest monthly snapshot from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). Physical premiums remain stubbornly high during what is normally a seasonal low point for demand over the northern hemisphere summer holidays. The global zinc market flipped to a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in May from a revised surplus of 31,000 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 10,900 tonnes in April. During the first five months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 29,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 44,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.3% to settled at 1735 while prices up 6.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 320.9 and below same could see a test of 314.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 331.7, a move above could see prices testing 335.9.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 314.3-335.9.

*  Zinc rose as lower-than-expected U.S. inflation eased worries of aggressive rate hikes that could hurt growth and metals demand.

* Refined zinc production at Glencore's European operations fell by 47,500 tonnes year-on-year to 350,900 tonnes in the first six months of 2022.

* Europe's power woes and a string of smelter problems elsewhere caused global output to slide by almost 2% in the first five months of 2022

Aluminium ???????

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.32% at 218.15 as a deepening energy crisis, particularly in Europe, has squeezed supplies of the energy-intensive metal. Concerns about an economic and manufacturing slowdown have taken a front seat as increasingly hawkish central banks to rein in sky-high inflation have dented demand for industrial metals. This has come against a backdrop of increasing production from China as smelters recovered from last year’s aggressive energy efficiency targets and recent coronavirus-induced halts. Prices getting support as power rationing is already on in some places in China's Zhejiang province, affecting the production of some smelters. Aluminium smelter in China's Sichuan cut its output following an accident, which is expected to affect 200,000 mt of capacity. The supply of aluminium is expected to slow down due to accident, while the demand stood sluggish, and some downstream manufacturers lowered the operating rates amid power rationing. Fed Kashkari said the Fed is still far from declaring victory over inflation, and the idea of cutting interest rates early next year is "unrealistic", a more realistic way is to raise the rates until the inflation reaches the 2% target. 3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2022, and 0.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, resisting pressure to achieve positive growth. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.47% to settled at 3437 while prices up 2.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 215.9 and below same could see a test of 213.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.6, a move above could see prices testing 221.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 213.6-221.

* Aluminium rose as a deepening energy crisis, particularly in Europe, has squeezed supplies of the energy-intensive metal.

* Prices getting support as power rationing is already on in some places in China's Zhejiang province, affecting the production of some smelters.

* Aluminium smelter in China's Sichuan cut its output following an accident, which is expected to affect 200,000 mt of capacity.
 

Mentha oil ???????

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 987.9 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 0.7 Rupees to end at 1138 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.63% to settled at 1580 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 983.9 and below same could see a test of 979.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 994.3, a move above could see prices testing 1000.7.
 

Trading Ideas:

*  Mentha oil trading range for the day is 979.9-1000.7.

*  In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 0.7 Rupees to end at 1138 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

*  In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 170.22 in April 2022 showing a rise of 23.31%.

* In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 7158 on profit booking after prices seen supported amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, 0.22 lakh tonnes, marking a decline of 38% on m-o-m basis and 48% on y-o-y basis. The major Turmeric producing states such as Telangana, Maharashtra witnessed fall in mandi arrivals during the month of July. Turmeric sowing for marketing year 2023 has started across major production states. In the beginning of June, with the delay in monsoon progress over key Turmeric growing states like Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, Turmeric sowings remained sluggish. Stockists have remained inactive due to availability of stock in Marathwada region. As per market feedback, in the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2022 has rose by 14.94 percent at 30,899.73 as compared to 26,881.41 exported during Apr-May 2021. In the month of May 2022 around 17,137.15 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 13762.59 in April 2022 showing a rise of 24.51%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,137.15 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,598.88 in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.02%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7635.35 Rupees dropped -86.1 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.26% to settled at 14920 while prices down -90 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7094 and below same could see a test of 7032 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7238, a move above could see prices testing 7320.

Trading Ideas:???????

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7032-7320.

*  Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season.

*  In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.

* Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2022 has rose by 14.94 percent at 30,899.73 as compared to 26,881.41 exported during Apr-May 2021.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7635.35 Rupees dropped -86.1 Rupees.

Jeera 

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 24030 on profit booking after seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. However, mandi arrivals were also lower by 39% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. As per market feedback, export demand has decreased as compared to corresponding period of the previous year. The reason behind decline in export demand was lower exports to China, as the country had imposed lockdown amid resurgence of Covid. In last 3 years Jeera export was observed to be 7.30 Lakh Tonnes out of which 2.01 Lakh Tonnes was exported to China i.e 28% of total jeera exported. As per preliminary estimates, all-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 (April-March) by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings. As per Fourth advance estimates released by Govt of Gujarat Jeera production is likely to fall by 45% to 2.22 lakh tonnes over the previous year. Area covered under cumin seed in Gujarat and Rajasthan state (considered together) has decreased by 28% over last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -253 Rupees to end at 23715.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.12% to settled at 10344 while prices down -145 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23870 and below same could see a test of 23715 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24160, a move above could see prices testing 24295.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23715-24295

* Jeera dropped dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks

* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month

*  All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -253 Rupees to end at 23715.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.33% at 49060 as crop has been damaged as excessive rains continue to hit parts of the Maharashtra State. According to government sources, if rains continue to hit the State for the next few days more crop is likely to get damaged. The heavy rainfall has caused heavy losses to the cotton crop in Narnaund, Baas, Hansi and Barwala regions of the Hisar. The Agriculture Department report has revealed that 49,212 acres of cotton crop has suffered above 26 per cent losses, of which the crop on 18,700 acres has reported damage above 50 per cent. In Rajasthan, Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 7.99% with 647.1 thousand hectares as against 599.22 thousand hectares on the same day last year. However downside seen limited CAI reports at least 10% higher sowing is expected compared to previous kharif season’s 12 million hectares. Looking at the current trend, cotton sowing in Maharashtra is expected to cross 4.2 million hectares. In Gujarat, it would be around 2.7 million hectares. The cotton acreage in north will be around 1.5 million hectares and the same for southern states is likely to remain at around 3.5-4.0 million hectare. Reports of severe damage to crop due to heavy rains in Gujarat in the last 4 days, most of the sowings have failed. In spot market, Cotton gained by 630 Rupees to end at 45550 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.35% to settled at 1126 while prices up 160 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 48650 and below same could see a test of 48230 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49350, a move above could see prices testing 49630.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 48230-49630

*  Cotton gained as crop has been damaged as excessive rains continue to hit parts of the Maharashtra State.

*  India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 5.34% to 117.65 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 111.69 lakh hectares in 2021.
.*  In Rajasthan, Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 7.99% with 647.1 thousand hectares as against 599.22 thousand hectares in 2021

*  In spot market, Cotton gained  by 630 Rupees to end at 45550 Rupees.

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