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Gold 

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 50473 helped by a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, even as fears lingered about more hefty Federal Reserve rate hikes to tame soaring inflation. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the latest CPI data warrants continued "frontloading" through larger rate hikes of three-quarters of a percentage point, but that does not necessarily mean rates need to be raised above the central bank's projections. Data showed U.S. consumer prices increased more-than-expected in September, providing ammunition to the Fed to deliver another big rate hike. Physical gold buying improved in India as prices cooled ahead of the Dhanteras and Diwali festivals later this month, while Chinese premiums stayed elevated amid robust demand. In India, dealers were charging $1.5 an ounce premium over official domestic prices versus $6 discounts last week. Supplies were limited as banks were importing less and inflows of gold-platinum alloys have stopped after the government raised the import duty. China saw premiums of $27-$32 an ounce over global spot prices, although COVID restrictions could hit activity. Premiums of $1-$4 an ounce were charged in Hong Kong, and $1.50-$3 in Singapore. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.38% to settle at 14658 while prices are up 213 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50289 and below same could see a test of 50105 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50702, a move above could see prices testing 50931

Trading Ideas : 

Gold trading range for the day is 50105-50931.

Gold prices gained helped by a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields

 However, fears lingered about more hefty Federal Reserve rate hikes to tame soaring inflation.

 Fed's Bullard favors 'frontloading' rate hikes now

Silver 

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.96% at 56307 as the dollar dipped on improved risk sentiment as investors awaited clarity on U.K.'s fiscal plan. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation had become "pernicious" and difficult to arrest, and warranted continued "frontloading" through larger rate increases of three-quarters of a percentage point. Inflation in the United States remains stubborn and growth in European Union countries is due to weaken to half a percent, Gita Gopinath, a senior official at the International Monetary Fund said. Still, persistently high inflation and bets on further monetary tightening kept downward pressure on bullion prices. A University of Michigan survey pointed to improved consumer sentiment in October, but inflation expectations increased for the first time since March. That has exacerbated concerns of unsustainable price growth after September’s CPI print came in hotter than expected, prompting US Federal Reserve officials to signal readiness to raise interest rates higher than previously planned. A stronger demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid heightened economic uncertainties also weighed. Investors also await a slew of U.S. data including reports on industrial production, manufacturing, housing starts and existing home sales this week for fresh insights on the health of the world's largest economy. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.12% to settle at 21173 while prices are up 1081 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 55615 and below same could see a test of 54924 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56933, a move above could see prices testing 57560.

Trading Ideas :

Silver trading range for the day is 54924-57560.

Silver gains as the dollar dipped on improved risk sentiment as investors awaited clarity on U.K.'s fiscal plan.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation had become "pernicious" and difficult to arrest

Inflation in the United States remains stubborn and growth in European Union countries is due to weaken to half a percent, IMF

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 7080 as China’s continuation of loose monetary policy offset fears of high inflation and energy costs dragging the global economy into a recession. United Arab Emirates energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said that the latest OPEC+ decision to cut output by 2 million barrels per day was "a pure technical decision". He added in a tweet that the decision was "unanimously approved ... with no political intentions whatsoever". The secretary general of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) said that the OPEC+ decision to cut its oil production target is correct, and was taken at the right time. The decision took into account the uncertainty surrounding the performance of the global economy, and was in line with the successful approach taken by OPEC+ in taking proactive steps to avoid any oil market imbalances, especially on the demand and supply sides, OAPEC secretary general Ali bin Sabt added in a statement. OAPEC comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates. Oil supply is due to remain tight after OPEC and allies like Russia pledged on Oct. 5 to cut output by 2 million barrels per day, as a war of words between OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia and the United States could foreshadow more volatility. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -18.46% to settle at 3648 while prices are up 9 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6978 and below same could see a test of 6877 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7172, a move above could see prices testing 7265

Trading Ideas:

Crude oil trading range for the day is 6877-7265.

Crudeoil gains as China’s continuation of loose monetary policy offset fears of high inflation and energy costs dragging the global economy into a recession.

UAE energy minister: OPEC+ latest decision was unanimous and purely technical

OAPEC Sec Gen says OPEC+ decision to cut oil production 'correct'

Nat.Gas 

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -7.23% at 495.4 amid record domestic production levels and lower weather-driven demand. The latest EIA report showed that US utilities added 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage last week, which is much bigger than usual and above market expectations of a 123 bcf build. It was the fourth consecutive week of increases above 100 bcf due to mild weather and an increase in wind power. Meanwhile, average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 99.9 bcfd so far in October from a record 99.4 bcfd in September, according to Refinitiv. Also, weighing on gas prices was a drop in demand from power outages due to Hurricane Ian and reduced LNG exports. Refinitiv projected that average US gas demand, including exports, would jump to 99.3 bcfd this week with the coming of colder weather before sliding to 97.2 bcfd next week with the return of milder temperatures. U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will rise to $6.77 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2022, their highest since 2008, before falling to $5.57 in 2023, according to forecasts. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 44.7% to settle at 11933 while prices are down -38.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 481.2 and below same could see a test of 467 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 517.3, a move above could see prices testing 539.2

Trading Ideas:

Natural gas trading range for the day is 467-539.2.

Natural gas dropped amid record domestic production levels and lower weather-driven demand

Weighing on gas prices was a drop in demand from power outages due to Hurricane Ian and reduced LNG exports

 Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 99.9 bcfd so far in October from a record 99.4 bcfd in Septembe

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 648.35 amid demand uncertainty due to China's stance on COVID-19 curbs and worries around global economic growth. Stocks at warehouses of LME, COMEX, ShFE and Shanghai-bonded warehouses totalled 253,000 tonnes last week, a weekly drop of 12,000 tonnes. Total copper production in Chile, the world's top copper producer, fell 10.2% in August to 415,500 tonnes. Tight supplies, better demand in China, and an open import arbitrage buoyed the Yangshan import copper premium to $142.50 a tonne, the highest since March 2014. But, uncertainty around demand prevailed as the world's top metal consumer China's zero-COVID policy persisted. Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated the country's COVID-19 stance when he kicked off a Communist Party Congress, against market expectations of an easing in such curbs. Weighing on prices further, recession fears amid global central banks' aggressive monetary policy weighed dented copper's rally. The People Bank of China rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans while maintaining the interest rate unchanged for the second month in a row. The central bank said in a statement that it was keeping the rate on CNY 500 billion ($69.55 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.75% from the prior operation. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.55% to settle at 4679 while prices are down -1.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 644.4 and below same could see a test of 640.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 654.5, a move above could see prices testing 660.7.

Trading Ideas:

Copper trading range for the day is 640.5-660.7

Copper dropped amid demand uncertainty due to China's stance on COVID-19 curbs and worries around global economic growth

Copper dropped amid demand uncertainty due to China's stance on COVID-19 curbs and worries around global economic growth

 Stocks at warehouses of LME, COMEX, ShFE and Shanghai-bonded warehouses totalled 253,000 tonnes last week, a weekly drop of 12,000 tonnes

Total copper production in Chile, fell 10.2% in August to 415,500 tonnes

Zinc 

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.89% at 264.55 as US inflation data aggravated the expectations of a 75bp rate hike in November, triggering worries over economic downturn. Data shows that the zinc ingot inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 88,700 mt as of October 14, up 11,700 mt from October 8 and up 4,000 mt from this Monday (October 10). In the Shanghai market, zinc ingots transferred from Guangdong warehouses and those directly shipped by smelters arrived. The People Bank of China rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans while maintaining the interest rate unchanged for the second month in a row. The central bank said in a statement that it was keeping the rate on CNY 500 billion ($69.55 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.75% from the prior operation. China's economy showed a significant recovery in the third quarter and employment is generally stable, said an official at China's economic state planner, but the economy still faces many challenges and difficulties. The comments come as the world's second-largest economy has grappled with stringent COVID-19 curbs and a deepening property crisis. "The improvement of the Chinese economy will be consolidated as the effects of macro policies continue to be released," said Zhao Chenxin. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.24% to settle at 2474 while prices are down -5.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 262 and below same could see a test of 259.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 268.8, a move above could see prices testing 273.1.

Trading Ideas:

Zinc trading range for the day is 259.5-273.1

Zinc dropped as US inflation data aggravated the expectations of a 75bp rate hike in November, triggering worries over economic downturn

China Keeps 1-Year MLF Rate at 2.75%

China showed 'significant' Q3 rebound but faces challenges – state planner

Aluminium 

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.77% at 199.6 as inventories in LME warehouses jumped, fuelling fears of unwanted Russian origin metal in the LME system. Western countries have imposed sanctions on Russian banks and wealthy individuals connected to President Vladimir Putin since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, but so far there are no restrictions on buying Russian metal. However, metal industry sources say there is concern that Rusal will be unable to sell its metal and will deliver it into the LME system, which would distort prices. Stocks of aluminium in LME warehouses jumped 65,825 tonnes to 433,025 on Friday. Of that, 23,525 tonnes were delivered to Gwanyang in South Korea and 44,675 tonnes to Port Klang in Malaysia. The aluminium ingot social inventory rose less than expected on the basis of a low base before the National Day holiday and poor arrivals after the holiday. To sum up, aluminium prices are unlikely to break the current range amid supply disruptions in China and abroad, bearish global demand in mid and long term, as well as the wrestling between longs and shorts. China's economy showed a significant recovery in the third quarter and employment is generally stable, said an official at China's economic state planner, but the economy still faces many challenges and difficulties. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.09% to settle at 3022 while prices are down -3.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 196.9 and below same could see a test of 194 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 203.3, a move above could see prices testing 206.8.

Trading Ideas:

 Aluminium trading range for the day is 194-206.8

Aluminium prices dropped as inventories in LME warehouses jumped, fuelling fears of unwanted Russian origin metal in the LME system.

China's economy showed a significant recovery in the third quarter and employment is generally stable

Metal industry sources say there is concern that Rusal will be unable to sell its metal and will deliver it into the LME system

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 983.9 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -16.8 Rupees to end at 1128.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.08% to settle at 1083 while prices are down -1.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 974 and below same could see a test of 964 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 992, a move above could see prices testing 1000

Trading Ideas:

Mentha oil trading range for the day is 964-1000

In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -16.8 Rupees to end at 1128.4 Rupees per 360 kgs

Mentha oil dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes

 August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022

However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.72% at 7306 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7190.1 Rupees dropped -31.05 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.84% to settle at 10765 while prices are down -128 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7224 and below same could see a test of 7144 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7432, a move above could see prices testing 7560.

Trading Ideas:

Turmeric trading range for the day is 7144-7560.

Turmeric dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region.

As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.

Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7190.1 Rupees dropped -31.05 Rupees

Jeera 

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 23835 on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -136.95 Rupees to end at 23813.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.58% to settle at 6714 while prices are down -115 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23625 and below same could see a test of 23415 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24090, a move above could see prices testing 24345.

Trading Ideas:

 Jeera trading range for the day is 23415-24345

Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks

 Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month

All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -136.95 Rupees to end at 23813.35 Rupees per 100 kg

Cotton 

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.33% at 33310 as India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. This is lower by about 13 per cent than 353 lakh bales estimated for the previous season ended September 30, 2021. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. USDA said its estimates for 2022/23 U.S. cotton crop ending stocks are 100,000 bales higher from a year earlier, with production nearly unchanged at 13.8 million bales. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In spot market, Cotton gained by 270 Rupees to end at 33550 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.87% to settle at 505 while prices are up 760 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32300 and below same could see a test of 31280 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 34050, a move above could see prices testing 34780

Trading Ideas:

 Cotton trading range for the day is 31280-34780

Cotton gained as India’s 2021-22 cotton crop estimated at 14-year low

Support also seen as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions

USDA projected higher year-end stocks and a decline in exports amid a slowdown in consumption

In spot market, Cotton gained  by 270 Rupees to end at 33550 Rupees.

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