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Rupee to gains Crude oil Retreats and Risk Sentiments Back - HDFC Securities 

Rupee likely to open higher as risk assets rebound and crude oil prices retreated. The one month USDINR forward trading 14 paise lower from yesterday’s close indicating lower opening at domestic bourses. Local currency started the week on strong note and outperform among peers following financial year end adjustments

On Monday, spot USDINR gained 4 paise to 76.17 a dollar amid stronger domestic equities and lower crude oil prices. Near term pullback can be seen pair as it closes below short term moving averages and oscillators turning weak on daily chart.

The greenback is mostly firmer against its peers amid quarter-end flows and as Treasury 2-year yields rise, while lower oil prices undercut commodity currencies and help to steady the yen.

The yen steadies at 123.58, down 1.3%, after tumbling to 125.09 earlier in the session, its weakest level in nearly seven years, following the Bank of Japan’s offer to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year government bonds over the next three days, a sign of monetary policy easing

The euro turned slightly positive as Ukrainian and Russian negotiating teams get set to meet in Turkey Tuesday.

Emerging-market currencies around the globe fell on Monday after yields on five-year Treasuries briefly rose above those on 30-year bonds, suggesting some investors expect an economic downturn.

WTI crude plummets 8% on concerns about China lockdowns and after OPEC+ sees no need to change oil-supply plans.

USDINR

Technical Observations:

USDINR April futures closed below 21 days exponential moving average. In last one month, the pair has held the support of 55 DEMA.

It has been holding bullish sequence of higher highs and lows on daily chart but breaking the 76.25 negate the bullish trend.

Relative Strength Index of 14 days period oscillating around 50 indicating consolidation in near term.

The option derivative data indicating highest open interest at 76 PE and 77 CE indicating near term range of 76 to 77.

USDINR April futures bias remains bullish as long as it holds 76.25 while on higher side resistance placed at 76.85.

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