Rupee may open near 83/USD; U.S. yields, yuan watched
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The Indian rupee is tipped to open near its record low of 83 to the U.S. currency on Thursday, as the surge in Treasury yields and the dollar index, fuelled a broader decline in Asian currencies and shares.
The rupee is expected to open at 82.98-83.02 per U.S. dollar, compared with a record low of 83.02 in the previous session.
Large corporate dollar and custodial outflows had prompted a selloff in the currency toward the last one-and-a-half hour of trade on Wednesday, traders said.
The dollar's broad strength and stop losses at 82.40, a level the Reserve Bank of India was likely protecting, accentuated the rupee's decline.
The "saving grace" for the rupee after "yesterday's meltdown" is that post regular trading hours, it was broadly flat at around the 83 level, a currency dealer at a Mumbai-based bank said.
"In initial trades, traders will be looking to assess how sticky this new big figure proves."
The selloff in U.S. Treasuries resumed on Wednesday, pushing near-maturity and longer-maturity Treasury yields to fresh multi-year highs. Yields had spiked despite a weak U.S. housing report.
The bets on the U.S. Fed to continue hiking rates aggressively got a boost after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said underlying inflation pressures probably have not peaked yet.
Fed funds futures have priced in a near 94% chance of a 75 bps rate rise in November, and a 76% probability of another 75 bps increase in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The rise in yields and safe-haven demand catapulted the dollar index back to above the 113-levels. The onshore Chinese yuan dropped to 7.2474 to the dollar, leading Asian currencies lower.
U.S. equity futures extended their decline and Asian shares were down 1% to 2.7%.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.30; onshore one-month forward premium at 21.5 paise ** USD/INR NSE Oct futures settled on Wednesday at 83.15 ** USD/INR October forward premium at 6.0 paise ** Dollar index up at 113.06 ** Brent crude futures at $92.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.15%, India 10-yr bond yield at 7.49% ** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures down 0.7% at 17,379 ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $104.4 mln worth of Indian shares on Oct. 18
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $37.6 mln worth of Indian bonds on Oct. 18
(This story has been corrected to show rupee level at 82.40 from 72.40 in fourth paragraph)
