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Rupee likely to find support around 76.70 - HDFC Securities 

• Rupee likely to open slightly lower following overnight gain in dollar and bond yields. However, lower crude oil prices and surge in equities could restrict the loss in intraday trade. An index of the dollar advanced and U.S. yields surged as traders weigh the odds of even more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. The yen, meantime, extended its longest losing streak in more than 50 years as hawkish comments from a Fed official threatened to further widen the interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan.

• On Tuesday, Spot USDINR ended at 76.51 with gain of 24 paise or 0.32%. The pair likely to show profit booking after gaining for fifth day in row. It has resistance at 76.70 and support at 76.15.

• India's GDP to grow at 8.2% in FY23, 0.8 percentage points lower than IMF’s January projection. GDP is estimated to grow 6.9% in FY24, 0.2% lower than what was projected previously, reflecting weaker domestic demand on high commodity prices.

• Bond markets took another key step on the road to pre-pandemic normality, with the benchmark inflation-adjusted Treasury yield climbing above zero for the first time in more than two years. US Treasury yields surged across the curve Tuesday, with short-end rates leading the way higher, while the rate on the benchmark 30- year bond briefly rose above 3% for the first time in three years.

• St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said a 75-basis-point rate hike shouldn’t be ruled out, although an increase of more than 50 basis points wasn’t his base case.

• Russia has launched what Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hailed as a second phase of the war in Ukraine — and early indications are it could go better for Russia than the first. Meanwhile, Lavrov said Russia was committed to avoiding nuclear war, after being quizzed about the possible use of atomic weapons in Ukraine.

USDINR

Technical Observations:

• USDINR April futures closed above previous swing high and well above major moving averages.

• It has formed higher highs and lows on intraday chart indicating short term up trend.

• Relative Strength Index of 14 days period hovering above 50 and heading north indicating strengthening of the trend.

• MACD has given positive cross over and placed above zero line.

• +DI is placed above –DI and ADX line reversing from lower level.

• USDINR April futures likely to head higher towards 77.30, the high of March month with holding support of 75.80, the 55 days exponential moving average.

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