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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee is expected to depreciate amid rebound in the dollar. The strong labor market in the US has raised the bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer to rein inflation. Meanwhile, upside in the pair could be capped amid expectation of pause in interest rate hike by the Fed after July meeting

• US$INR is likely to hold the support near 81.90 and move back towards the higher end of the consolidation range 81.90-82.30. A move outside the range could bring more clarity in the trend. Below 81.90 it would slid towards 81.70. Similarly above 82.30 it would rise towards 82.45.

Dollar Index vs. US$INR

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro is likely to trade on a weaker note amid rebound in dollar. Also easing price pressures in German could hurt the hawkish ECB policy and weaken the Euro. EURUSD is most likely to slip towards 1.1080, as long as it remains under 1.1180. EURINR may face the hurdle near 91.80 and slide towards 91.00 level

• Pound is expected to remain under pressure amid strong recovery in the dollar. Further, forecast of drop in UK retail sales data could also hurt the pair. The pair is expected to face the hurdle near 1.2940 and inch lower towards 1.2840. GBPINR is likely to face the resistance near 106 and move towards the immediate support near 105.20.

EURINR vs. GBPINR

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