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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

The US dollar rose 0.38% yesterday amid improved economic data from the US. Weekly jobless claims fell sharply to the lowest level in 52 years. Further, FOMC meeting minutes showed that some officials are prepared to accelerate the pace of ending bond buying programme and raise rates sooner than anticipated if inflation does not moderate. Additionally, core PCE price index showed inflation remained elevated in October

Rupee future maturing on November 26 appreciated by 0.06% yesterday as some foreign banks sold dollar. However, sharp gains were prevented on persistent FII outflows and firm dollar

The rupee is expected to depreciate on a strong dollar, FII outflows and rise in crude oil prices. Further, the rupee may slip on risk aversion in the domestic markets. Investors fear that rise in interest rates in major counties across globe to tackle elevated inflation may lead to outflows of overseas investments

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