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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar index ended the day on a positive note amid a surprise gain in US JOLTS job opening numbers, which jumped to 10.103 million for the first time in the last two months. However, dovish comments from a few Fed members tempered the dollar rally as they signalled support for pausing rate hikes

• Rupee future maturing on June 27 depreciated by 0.05% amid a strong dollar and weaker domestic equities

• The rupee is likely to appreciate amid rising expectations that the Fed will pause its rate hike regime this month. Further, strong domestic GDP numbers, which jumped to 6.1% against the forecast of 5.1% in last quarter would also support the rupee. Moreover, expectation of a weaker set of economic numbers from the US could hurt the dollar. The US$INR pair could face a hurdle near 82.90 and move towards 82.50

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