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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar edged down by 0.14% on Thursday amid weaker than expected US pending home sales and initial jobless claims, which reinforced expectations that the world's largest economy is likely headed toward recession

• Rupee future maturing on April 26 appreciated by 0.10% on Thursday amid a weak US dollar and drop in crude oil prices

• The rupee is likely to trade with a positive bias amid weakness in the US dollar and sharp drop in crude oil prices. US$INR is likely to continue its downward trend towards the level of 81.98

Euro and Pound Outlook

• The Euro appreciated by 0.10% yesterday amid a drop in the US dollar. Further, the Euro was supported after ECB President Christine Lagarde said eurozone inflation is too high and the monetary policy still has a bit of way to go to bring back inflation towards its 2% goal. Meanwhile, a decline in producer price inflation in Germany helped to restrict the upward move. The PPI declined to -2.60% in March from -0.30% in February 2023

• The Euro is expected to trade on a bullish note amid a softer US dollar. Furthermore, the Euro may gain on expectations that German manufacturing PMI data is likely to rise from 44.7 to 45.7. EURINR is likely to break the key resistance level of 90.21 to continue its upward trend toward the level of 90.40

• The pound rose marginally by 0.03% on Thursday amid weakness in the US dollar. Meanwhile, sharp upside was capped as British inflation is proving far more obstinate than expected and is far higher than anywhere else in Western Europe, underscoring the threat to an already fragile economy.

• The pound is expected to trade with a positive bias amid weak US dollar. GBPINR is expected to surpass the immediate hurdle of 102.28 to continue its upward trend towards the level of 102.40

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