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Rupee likely to depreciate on strong dollar

Dollar gained strength as Manufacturing and Services PMI data showed that activity in both sectors improved in November. Further, US Fed Chair Powell in his testimony said it would be appropriate for central bank to consider accelerating the reduction of its bond buying program in December meeting. However, further upside was capped as US Non-farm payrolls data showed employers added 210K jobs in November, that fell short of estimation of 553K jobs

Rupee depreciated in the previous week on strong dollar and consistent FII outflows. Further, rupee slipped on concerns over impact of new Omicron variant on global economic recovery. However, sharp fall was prevented on enhanced economic data from country

We expect rupee to depreciate on strong dollar, persistent FII outflows and uncertainty over the economic impact of Omicron variant. Further, investors will remain vigilant ahead of Reserve bank of India monetary policy meeting and major economic data’s from US. RBI is likely to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged, more focus will be on statements to get the hint on future monetary stance

GBPINR

Euro depreciated in the previous week on strong dollar and disappointing economic data’s. Further, euro slipped on concern over resurgence in COVID-19 cases and dovish statements from ECB policymaker

Euro is expected to trade with negative bias on strong dollar and risk aversion in the global markets. Further, expectations of disappointing economic data from euro area and divergence in monetary policy will hurt single currency. US Federal Reserve is likely to accelerate its pace of monetary tightening, whereas ECB is forecasted to continue with its easy money policy as most of the policymakers are in view that its recent rise in inflation is transitory. EURINR (Dec) is expected to trade in a range of 84.50- 86.00

Pound depreciated in the preceding week on strong dollar, dovish statement from BOE policymaker and as doubt grew on whether Bank of England will raise interest rates in December meeting

Pound is expected to trade with negative bias on strong dollar and risk off mood globally. Further, GDP data is likely to show that economic activity slowed down in October 2021. Additionally, worries over post-Brexit quarrel with EU over Northern Ireland trading arrangements will hurt cable currency. Furthermore, investors will remain cautious whether or not Bank of England will raise interest rates at its December meeting. GBPINR (Dec) is expected to trade in a range of 99.30-100.60

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