Rupee caught between further rise in US yields, yuan recovery
The Indian rupee is likely to open little changed on Tuesday on the back of a recovery in the Chinese yuan and other Asian currencies despite a further rise in U.S. yields.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open near Monday's level of 83.1075.
It looks like the USD/INR has settled at just above the 83 handle for now, a forex trader at Mumbai-based bank said.
"The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) is averse to it (the USD/INR) making a new high, and on the other hand, you have the volatility in (US) Treasury yields,"
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury hit the highest since 2007 on Monday on bets that a resilient U.S. economy will push the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.
At the Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium from Aug. 24 through 26, Chair Jerome Powell's comments will be scrutinized for cues on interest rates.
The Treasury sell-off is less about the terminal rate for this tightening cycle and more about where the Fed Funds rate settles under normal conditions, ING Bank said in a note.
"Chair Powell could shed some light on this on Friday," ING said.
Asian currencies managed a recovery on Tuesday, despite the U.S. Treasury yields. The offshore yuan was back below 7.30 to the dollar on bets of tightening up of offshore yuan liquidity. China's major state-owned banks were seen actively mopping up the offshore yuan on Monday.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.14; onshore one-month forward premium at 9.5 paisa ** USD/INR NSE August futures settled on Monday at 83.15 ** USD/INR August forward premium at 2.5 paisa ** Dollar index down at 103.20 ** Brent crude futures at $84.4 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.34% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $69.2mln worth of Indian shares on Aug. 18
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $166.9mln worth of Indian bonds on Aug.
