IGI Logo

Rupee Back To A Month High On Back Of Inflows And Lower Crude 

• Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher following overnight weakness in the dollar index and crude oil prices. However, traders should keep the position light ahead of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan which raises geopolitical tension and demand for haven assets. Also, the rupee has gained 90 paise in just four trading sessions due to that it has been placed in the oversold territory on an hourly chart. Rupee is having strong resistance between 78.90 to 78.65 fromwhere dollar demand can be seen.

• Indian rupee started August month on the frontfoot by gaining 24 paise or 0.3% to 79.03. After falling for the last seven months, the good beginning of August is half done as it has recovered allthe loss of July month.

• Technically, spot USDINR is having support at 78.68, the 50 days simple moving average and resistance at 79.90.

• India's manufacturing PMI came to an eight-month high as trends for output and new orders strengthen. The PMI rose to 56.4 in July as compared to 53.9 in June, remaining well above the 50-level forthe thirteenthmonth.

• India’s goods and services tax collections touched 1.48 trillion rupees ($18.7 billion) in July, 28% more than the same month last year, the Finance Ministry said in a statement Monday.

• Indian government bonds extend a rally seen in July as crude prices sharply dip, easing inflation worriesfor the net oil-importing nation. The Indian 10-year bond yieldsfell 8bps to 7.24%; yields dropped 13bps in July.

• Stocks in Asia retreated Tuesday amid escalating US-China tension over Taiwan and deepening worries about a global economic slowdown, risks that are supporting demand for Treasuries as a haven.

• With US-China relations under threat over Taiwan, the CNH has depreciated about 1% on a CFET basis over the past 24 hours. If the relations deteriorate further and the Chinese currency depreciatessignificantly the spillovers will likely be felt across global FXmarkets

USDINR

Technical Observations:

• USDINR August futures formed Candlestick with small body, indicating indecisivenessfrom traders

.• The pair is having rising trend line support in the range of 78.60 to 78.80.

• It has closed well below 21 days exponential moving average.

• Relative Strength Index of 14 days exited from overbought zone and currently placed below 50 indicating weak trend.

• MACD has given negative crossover and heading towards zero line indicating weak trend.

• USDINR August futures could trade lower with downside support in the range of 78.80 to 78.60 while on higher side 79.75 becomes near term resistance.

USDINR August Futures Hourly Chart

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer