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Rollovers remain strong going into the fresh series despite the 900 points rally in October series. FII long at 59% is a concerning sign as compared to their 13% longs in the month of July alongwith DII who have been net long throughout the last few quarters On the pattern front the recent occurrence of a ‘Bearish Marubozu’ formation near its 78.6% retracement resistance of its previous rally is a first sign of resistance. Hence a breakout above 17830 on a closing basis would be an immediate requisite for the rally to extend towards 18000 to 18100 during the November series. Since the index has managed to maintain its lows above its 5DEMA zone (17593) it still cannot be concluded as a firm reversal formation. On the flip side occurrence of multiple bullish reversal formations throughout the rally from 16747 base has been gradually evaluating the base higher which is now placed around 17430. The trendline support now stands at 17600 just above its 5 DEMA Highlighting the elevated support base ahead of the monthly October expiry. Derivatives data for the upcoming week indicates 17600 as an immediate base while 18000 holds the highest CE writing bound which is likely to act as a strong resistance. Broader strategy remains the same holding existing longs with a revised stop above 17488 on a closing basis until a perfect reversal formation is displayed by the index near any resistance zones until 18000-18100

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