Pre-monetary policy view : Average CPI in India for FY 24 is expected in the band of 5.00-5.25% Says Deepak Agarwal, Kotak Mahindra AMC
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Below is quote on Pre-monetary policy view by Deepak Agarwal, CIO (Debt), Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company
“Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates by 50 bps in Dec 22 policy, hiking overnight rates by cumulative 425 bps during CY 2022. Average CPI in India for FY 24 is expected in the band of 5.00-5.25%. Assuming 100 bps real rates, terminal repo rate in India could be ~ 6.25%. We expect 35 bps hike in the Dec 22 policy, along with change in monetary policy stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral” indicating further action to be data dependent. Post this hike, the overnight rates in India would have increased by ~ 300 bps during CY 2022.”
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