Perspective on the second advance estimates of GDP for FY22 By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
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Below is Perspective on the second advance estimates of GDP for FY22 By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings
“The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) has revised the GDP for FY22 lower to 8.9% in its second advance estimate from 9.2% estimated in the first advance estimates. For Q3, the estimated GDP growth is at 5.4% as against BWR’s estimates of 5.8%.
The growth estimates for the full fiscal are broadly in line with expectations. However, to achieve 8.9% growth, the Q4 GDP has to grow by 4.8%. This looks challenging given the fact that the third wave of the pandemic had caused considerable restrictions. In addition, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent supply bottlenecks, coal, power, and semiconductor shortages too have been pronounced. The effect of semiconductor shortages is already evident in the weak 0.2% growth in the manufacturing sector in Q3. The third wave was largely impacted the economic activities in the fourth quarter (Q4) we expect the full fiscal growth may undergo revisions. Finally, the higher crude oil prices are also likely to adversely impact both growth and inflation.”
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