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Below is perspective on CPI data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings CPI Inflation remained above MPC’s upper target of 6% for the second consecutive month in February 2022. The CPI inflation rate increased marginally to 6.07% in February 2022 from 6.01% in January. The current level of inflation is the highest in the last eight months and also higher than the 5.03% in February 2021. Higher food inflation at 5.85% seems to be du...
Perspective on CPI data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
The integrity of the Budget numbers is under a threat and the much-hyped increase in capital expenditures may not materialise as much as it was hoped, says M. Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser, Brickwork Ratings. The basic assumption in formulating the Budget that the crude oil prices will remain in the range of $ 75-80/barrel, has become unrealistic, not long after the Budget was presented. However, the breaking of war between Russia and Ukraine has created grave uncertainty and pose...
Integrity of Budget numbers under threat as oil prices spike
Tariff hikes as well as continued increase in data usage is expected to accelerate telecom industry's revenue growth in FY23. The sector has been saddled with debt due to complications such as the 'Adjusted Gross Revenue' (AGR) case verdict, which brought in a huge immediate liability on the books of telecom operators. "While the pandemic had a bad influence on the other sectors, surprisingly, it turned out to be a boon for the telecom sector as corporates were dependen...
Telecom industry to witness healthy revenue growth in FY23
Below is Perspective on the second advance estimates of GDP for FY22 By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings “The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) has revised the GDP for FY22 lower to 8.9% in its second advance estimate from 9.2% estimated in the first advance estimates. For Q3, the estimated GDP growth is at 5.4% as against BWR’s estimates of 5.8%. The growth estimates for the full fiscal are broadly in li...
Perspective on the second advance estimates of GDP for FY22 By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
The impact of third Covid wave on economic momentum is expected to lower India's FY22 GDP growth to 8.3 per cent, said Brickwork Ratings. The ratings agency had earlier given a forecast of 8.5 to 9 per cent for FY22. "The latest growth indicators suggest a loss of economic momentum in recent months. The rapid spread of Covid in January 2022 led to renewed restrictions on economic activities, dampening the revival process, particularly in contact-intensive sectors," the age...
GDP growth likely to be around 8.3% in FY22: Brickwork Ratings
The impact of the third wave of Covid on economic momentum may lower growth in the second half of the current fiscal (H2FY22). With the upward revisions of the FY21 GDP growth by Mospi, we revise our GDP growth projections for FY22 to 8.3% from the earlier forecast of 8.5% to 9%. As per the advance estimate for FY22 released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi), the GDP is estimated to grow at 9.2% in real terms. The latest growth indicators suggest a loss of ...
GDP growth likely to be around 8.3% in FY22: Brickwork Ratings
Below is perspective on the CPI By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings “The CPI inflation rate increased to 6.01% in January 2022 from the revised 5.66% in December 2021. The current level of inflation is the highest in the last seven months and also higher than the 4.06% in January 2021. Core inflation moderated to 5.96% from 6.01%. The prices of food items have shown a steep rise from 4.05% in December to 5.43% in January, due ...
Perspective on the CPI By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
Below are Views on RBI Monetary Policy By Ms. Rajee R, Chief Ratings Officer, Brickwork Ratings In line with BWR’s expectations, RBI continued its dovish stance and remained accommodative by reiterating that despite the economic recovery and aggregate demand gaining traction and improving inflation outlook, continued policy support is warranted to support domestic growth, which is the highest priority. Continuing with its calibrated liquidity management polic...
Reaction on Monetary Policy By Ms. Rajee R, Brickwork Ratings
Growth over Inflation: MPC expected to continue with status quo Brickwork Ratings, Bengaluru, 07February 2022: With the economy still in the recovery mode with the pandemic continuing to disrupt the recovery process, the MPC is expected to keep the policy rates stable at current levels in its upcoming meeting, to be announced on 10 February, despite the persistence of higher inflation. However, there is limited scope for MPC to continue with the current policy stance for long, as supply c...
Growth over Inflation: MPC expected to continue with status quo - Brickwork Ratings
Below is perspective on the CPI & IIP data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings As expected by Brickwork Ratings, the CPI inflation rate crossed 5.5% though only marginally to 5.59% in December 2021. It was 4.59% in December last year. Both core inflation and fuel inflation softened marginally, however, they are still at elevated levels. Fuel inflation eased to 10.95% from 13.35% in November due to softening international crude oil pr...
Perspective on the CPI & IIP data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
Below is perspective on Advance estimates of GDP for FY22 By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings The advance estimate of GDP for FY22 released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) are more optimistic at 9.2%, considering the supply bottlenecks, coal, power and semiconductor shortages and looming third wave of the pandemic. The advance estimates are the extrapolation of the numbers based on the six to eight months of...
Perspective on Advance estimates of GDP for FY22 By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
Brickwork Ratings, 06 January 2022: Economic recovery was well underway after the second wave of the pandemic although, since October, there have been some disruptions caused by semiconductor shortage, along with supply shortages in coal and power outages causing a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Rising input prices to have added to the problem. Nevertheless, there was a steady improvement in economic revival. The progress in vaccination too promised broad steady progress in an eco...
Downside risks to economic recovery; GDP growth estimates revised downwards to 8.5%–9% for FY22 : Brickwork Ratings
Below is perspective on Fiscal Deficit data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings “The data on fiscal trends in November 2021 released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) shows that cumulative fiscal deficit up to the month of November 2021 adds up to 46.2% of the whole year’s budget estimate and is substantially lower than that of 135% recorded for the same period last year. The capital expenditure has increased by 13.5% and c...
Perspective on the Fiscal Deficit data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
Below is perspective on the CPI data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings Although there is a marginal increase in the inflation rate in the last two months, it is below the market expectation of 5%. The food and fuel inflation are expected to be volatile due to exogenous factors like weather and global commodity prices. However, elevated level of core inflation at over 6 per cent in the last two months is a matter for concern. T...
Perspective on the CPI data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
Below are Views on RBI Monetary Policy By Ms. Rajee R, Chief Ratings Officer, Brickwork Ratings RBI has retained rates and maintained its accommodative stance, which is a welcome move to support growth oriented to domestic circumstances and augurs well for interest-sensitive sectors. In view of the evolving economic scenario and uncertainties associated with the scale of recovery especially in view of the possible economic impact due to the Omicron variant and con...
View on RBI Monetary Policy By Ms. Rajee R, Brickwork Ratings
Brickwork Ratings, Bengaluru, 06 December 2021: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is to announce the policy decision on 8 December in its bi-monthly monetary policy meeting. The betterthan-expected GDP numbers for Q2FY22 have provided much-needed comfort to the MPC on the growth outlook, while the new Covid variant Omicron weighs concerns on sustaining this recovery. Supply-side concerns are impacting the price level as well, although decline in oil prices witnessed in the last couple of we...
Brickwork Ratings expects RBI to maintain status quo in December MPC meeting
Brickwork Ratings : The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), on 3 November 2021, announced the unwinding of the policy accommodation provided by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. In the FOMC statement, the Fed has announced its decision of beginning to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases in stages- by USD 10 billion for Treasury securities and USD 5 billion for agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) starting later in November 2021. It will i...
Taper tantrum unlikely to create instability in Indian financial markets: Brickwork Ratings
Below is perspective on the GDP data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings “The second quarter 2021-22 GDP estimate released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation at 8.4% is quite close to the BWR projection of 8.3%. An important contributor to the growth has been the sharp increase in public administration, defence and other services which recorded a growth of 17.4% as compared to the contraction of 9.2% in the sec...
Perspective on the GDP data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
Below is perspective on Launch of RBI- Retail Direct Scheme By Bal Krishna Piparaiya, Principal Director, Brickwork Ratings "RBI Retail Direct Scheme (RRDS) in G-Sec, launched by Honorable Prime Minister of India -Shri Narendra Modi for individual buyers, will boost the hitherto large untapped potentials of Gilt investment and will provide direct, convenient, cost-free liquid and zero risk investment opportunity in Gilt to HNI and other retail investors. This is a ...
Perspective on Launch of RBI- Retail Direct Scheme By Bal Krishna Piparaiya, Brickwork Ratings
Below is perspective on IIP and CPI data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings The data on IIP in September and inflation in October released today show the deceleration in industrial production and increase in inflation are not encouraging. The progressive easing of lock down restrictions should have helped to accelerate industrial production. However, the IIP in September shows a sharp deceleration at 3.1% from 11.9% growth rep...
Perspective on IIP and CPI data By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
India's FY22 GDP is expected to grow at 10-10.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis, Brickwork Ratings said. According to the ratings agency, Q2FY22 GDP is expected to grow at 8.3 per cent year-on-year on the back of a faster-than-expected revival in economic activities as well as a decline in new Covid cases, leading to sustained improvement in growth prospects. "Most states have already relaxed restrictions on economic activities; with the progress achieved in vaccinating a size...
India's FY22 GDP expected to grow at 10-10.5%: Brickwork Ratings
Brickwork Ratings converts provisional ratings for the PTCs of Rs 2780.35 Crs issued by “Mortgage LAP Securitization Trust” backed by loan against properties (LAP) and housing loan receivables originated by Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited (IBHFL) and its wholly owned subsidiary Indiabulls Commercial Credit Ltd (ICCL) to final ratings as under. Detailed Rationale Brickwork Ratings (BWR) had assigned Provisional 'BWR BBB (SO)/Stable' ratings for the Series A1 PT...
Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd : Outstanding Ratings Affirmed; by Brickwork
Below is quote on RBI Monetary Policy reaction By Ms. Rajee R, Chief Ratings Officer, Brickwork Ratings “RBI continued its dovish stance and maintained its promised tone of accommodation to support growth, oriented to domestic circumstances. The increase in quantum of VRRR from Rs. 4 Lakh Crs. to Rs. 6 Lakh Crs, possibility of 28-day VRRR, halting the bond buying under the G-SAP and emphasising that it would be ready for such need based auctions indicates the con...
RBI Monetary Policy reaction By Ms. Rajee R, Brickwork Ratings
Below is quote on RBI Monetary Policy reaction By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Advisor, Brickwork Ratings In a unanimous decision, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI)Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), after a detailed assessment of growth and inflation outlook in the economy, has continued to maintain policy rates. With 5-1 majority it has also announced the continuation of accommodative stance. Both the decisions of the MPC are in line with BWR expectations. Altho...
RBI Monetary Policy reaction By Dr. M Govinda Rao, Brickwork Ratings
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