Perspective on IIP and CPI numbers By Mr. Vivek Rathi, Knight Frank India
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Perspective on IIP and CPI numbers By Mr. Vivek Rathi, Director-Research, Knight Frank India
" At 7% in June’22, headline consumer inflation continued to remain outside the RBI comfort zone with broad-based price rise across almost all the categories. Although elevated, various central government measures in the last two months such as reduction in petrol and diesel excise duties, cut in import duty on edible oils, curtailment measures on food exports, etc. helped contain inflation in June as seen in softened sequential price growth. The near-term consumer inflation outlook remains a little uncertain. The global commodity prices have started peaking out due to slowdown in global demand; however, the wide gap between wholesale and retail prices continues to indicate further transmission of input costs to the consumers.
Meanwhile, the industrial production in May’22 depicted a broad-based sequential improvement indicating at a resilient economic growth so far, unlike in the other major economies where the growth is faltering.To bring inflation under control and at the same time to harbour growth we expect the RBI to conclude its Aug 2022 policy meeting with a moderate 25-35bps repo rate hike.”
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