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Below is Perspective note on rupee 02 February 2022 By Currency Desk of Emkay Global Financial Services

“SPOT USDINR pair retraced from its recent swing highs of 75.30 levels over the past 3 sessions. The pair witnessed volatile moves as the Finance Minister announced the Union budget for 2022. The capital expenditure was pegged at 2.90% of the GDP for 2022-23 whereas the fiscal defecit for 2022-23 was projected at 6.40% and 4.50% by 2025-26. Meanwhile, the US dollar index retraced as Fed's Harker said that he's less convinced of a 50bps rate hike if inflation numbers start to come down in the near future. Brent crude oil prices continued to sustain around its 7-year highs following the tensions between Russia & Ukraine. The US has called in for strict economic sanctions if Russia escalates the situation. Spot USDINR pair needs to trade above 75.30 to resume the rally towards 75.75 levels. Further correction towards 74.25/74 levels will be seen below 74.60.”

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