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Below the quote on "Currency" by Heena Naik- Research Analyst - Currency, Angel One Ltd

                               USDINR Spot remains bullish in Aug’23; to hit 83.50 soon

The month of Aug’23 has already seen the Indian Rupee weaken by almost 1.04 percent touching the lower levels of 83.16. The remaining few days of this month shall witness further weakness in the Indian currency. The American currency has been trading with a bullish bias for the past few days post the upbeat US NY Fed Manufacturing Index, retail sales and wage growth. Apart from the datasets the hawkish Fed Minutes added to DXY’s strength. The latest Fed Minutes showed that most policymakers preferred supporting the battle again the ‘sticky’ inflation, despite being divided on the imminent rate hike. Also keeping the Greenback firmer was the risk-off mood and the upbeat Treasury bond yields.

Having said that, this week is quite crucial for the Indian currency. Important datasets like the Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for the month of Aug’23 and Durable Goods Orders for the month of Jul’23 will influence the trend of the US Dollar Index ahead of the central bankers’ speeches at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium event, scheduled between August 24 and 26. The speech of the US Fed Chair is very important as it could set a new direction of the American currency and other shared currencies  in turn. If the US Fed Chair Powell fails to defend the hawks, the DXY will stretch the latest pullback from the key resistance line.

USDINR Spot (CMP: 83.10) is likely to remain in the bullish arena for some time. Key resistance stands at 83.40 levels; break of same could push the currency towards 83.60 levels. On the other hand, 82.85-82.80 remain a key support on the lower side.

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