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Market Round up

* The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly lower against the dollar on Wednesday on mixed Asian cues. Asian currencies were mixed, with the Chinese yuan among the biggest laggards. However, the risk-on sentiments and lower dollar could limit the downside in the rupee. The forward USDINR is indicating open around 81.75 atlocal bourses.

* Indian rupee marked the first gain in the last five days as a gauge of the dollar index halted a three-day gains after some US policymakers struck a cautious note about further aggressive tightening moves. Recovery in domestic equities and stronger Asian currenciessupported the rupee in today’strade.

* On Tuesday, spot USDINR fell 17 paise to 81.67 on dollar selling by the state-run banks and stronger regional peers. Technically, it has resistance at 82.10 and support at 81.20.

* India's GDP growth is forecast to lag from 6.9% in 2022 to 5.9% in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs. Growth is expected to be "a tale of two halves in 2023", with a slowdown in the first half as the reopening boost fades and monetary tightening weighs on domestic demand. In the second half, growth is expected to pick up as global growth recovers, the export drag declines, and the investment cycle picks up.

* The near-term attention will be focused on the FOMC minutes due Wednesday. It may show consensus on the need to slow hikes but division on the end-point and whether to prioritise inflation of the economic growth.

USDINR

Technical Observations:

* USDINR Nov fut. Took resistance at the previous swing low and confirmed the lower tops and bottoms on the daily chart.

* The pair has resistance at 21 days simple moving average which is currently placed at 82.10 which coincides with the horizontal line and previous swing low.

* It may find support around 80.75 which is a lower band of the Bollinger Band.

* The derivative data indicates a short build-up as the pair rises along with the open interest, volume and aggregate open interest.

* Looking at the above technical evidence, we expect USDINR Nov fut expected to remain under pressure as long as it trades below 82.10 while on the downside it may find support around 80.75.

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