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Monthly update and chart book

* OMCs have effected consistent price hikes in auto-fuels as RSPs touched all-time highs on an uptick in international prices. Daily gross marketing margin on diesel/petrol currently stands at ~Rs3/ltr+ each, in line with normative levels. With Brent crossing USD65/bbl, another Rs2.2-2.4/ltr hike in pre-VAT prices is required over the coming fortnight. Fixed RTP accounting margins in Feb’21 averaged Rs3.6/3.8 per litre, while they currently stand at Rs4.2/4.4. Benchmark GRMs in February have averaged close to USD2/bbl, with gasoline cracks at USD5/bbl, diesel at ~USD6 and jet kero at USD4. The recent Texas freeze has pushed up GRMs to USD3/bbl and auto-fuel cracks to USD7/bbl+.

* Indian refining throughput for Jan’21 was up 0.6% yoy, and 3.7% mom to 21.81mmt. IOCL’s volumes improved qoq, as Paradip throughput came back from turnaround in Dec’20 with overall company utilization standing healthy at 107%. BPCL’s Mumbai/Kochi utilization was robust at 130%/119%, while HPCL’s Mumbai/Vizag volumes were up 11%/13% mom with average utilization improving to 107%. MRPL/CPCL saw higher crude runs mom at 111%/103%, while BORL volumes also saw growth. However, NRL/HMEL volumes were slightly down to 98%/83%. RIL’s overall utilization fell to 106%, with both units seeing a slight dip, while NEL remained flat mom at 91% in Jan’21.

* ONGC’s crude production for Jan’21 was down 4% yoy/up 1% mom at 1.72mmt, while gas production declined 9% yoy/flat mom at 1.87bcm. Oil India’s crude production was down 6% yoy but rose 1% mom to 0.24mmt, while gas production was up 2% yoy and 5% mom to 0.21bcm. Cairn’s Rajasthan output rose 1% mom to 116kb/d (gross) though it was down 8% yoy. Eastern offshore gas production saw a jump due to RIL’s R-Series field coming online at 5.9mmscmd, up 110% mom and over 4x vs. Nov’20.

* Indian LNG imports in Jan’21 fell 14% yoy and 11% mom to 77.6mmscmd (1.82mmt), which, in our view, was due to a spike in spot prices. Overall natural gas consumption for the month fell 9% yoy and 3% mom to 157.6mmscmd. As per Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) figures, Q3FY21 utilization for Shell Hazira, GAIL Dabhol, IOCL Ennore and GSPC Mundra stood at 75%, 125%, 14% and 40%, respectively.

* CPSE capex for 10MFY21 as per PPAC stood at Rs201.2bn/47.8bn/29.4bn/ 38.4bn/205.3bn/88.6bn/64.4bn/20.2bn/4.4bn for ONGC/OVL/Oil India/GAIL/IOCL/HPCL/ BPCL/MRPL/CPCL. 9MFY21 DBTL subsidy was Rs33.6bn, while kerosene underrecovery was nil. LPG subsidy is based on certain areas in non-metros.

* EAP: We are OW on ONGC, BPCL and HPCL.

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