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Key trends in oil & gas sector in Q4FY21 were: 1) Dubai and Brent crude were up 19-20% YoY at US$59.7-60.7/bbl; 2) domestic gas price was at US$2.0/mmbtu (10- year low); 3) Reuters’ Singapore gross refining margin (GRM) was at a 6-quarter high of US$1.8/bbl; 4) auto fuel net marketing margin was down 61% YoY at Rs1.2/l; and 5) auto fuel demand was up 6% YoY and total product demand up 2% YoY in Q4FY21.

* RIL’s Q4 EPS up 26% YoY: RIL’s consolidated recurring EPS is estimated to be up 26% YoY in Q4FY21E driven by: i) 45% YoY rise in digital services EBITDA; 2) 8% YoY rise in retail EBITDA; iii) 53% YoY rise in petrochemical EBITDA though oil to chemicals (O2C) EBITDA is estimated to be down 6% YoY and iv) 32-63% YoY fall in interest and tax.

* 318% YoY jump in IOC’s EPS; BPCL profit vs loss in Q4FY20: We estimate IOC’s Q4FY21E EPS to be up 318% YoY driven by: i) Product inventory gain of Rs44.4bn vs loss of Rs22.9bn in Q4FY20; ii) 353% YoY rise in petrochemical EBITDA to Rs21.5bn and iv) GRM of US$5.3/bbl boosted by crude inventory gain of US$5.1/bbl vs negative GRM of minus US$9.6/bbl hit by large inventory loss. We estimate BPCL’s Q4FY21E standalone EPS at Rs12.1 vs loss in Q4FY20 due to inventory gain vs loss in Q4FY20. Excluding inventory impact, IOC and BPCL’s Q4 EPS would be down 86-92% YoY.

* OIL in the black vs in the red in Q4FY20: We estimate Oil India’s (OIL) Q4FY21E EPS at Rs5.4 vs loss in Q4FY20 mainly due to 15% YoY rise in oil realisation.

* GAIL’s Q4 EPS to be up 18% YoY: We estimate GAIL’s Q4FY21 EPS to be up 18% YoY, driven by: i) 4.2x YoY jump in petrochemical EBITDA on rise in margins; ii) 40% YoY rise in gas marketing EBITDA helped by surge in oil prices and spot LNG and iii) 13% YoY rise in LPG and other hydrocarbon EBITDA. Gas marketing and transmission volumes are estimated to be up 1-3% YoY at 99-112mmscmd, petrochemical volumes up 34% YoY and LPG volumes up 6% YoY.

* IGL & MGL’s EPS up 43-48% YoY and that of GGL’s up 18% YoY: We estimate Q4FY21 EPS of GGL to be up 18% YoY, driven by 19% YoY rise in volumes to 11.8mmscmd with industrial volumes rising by 23% YoY to 9.4mmscmd driven by Morbi volumes. EBITDA margin is estimated to be down 5% YoY to Rs4.5/scm hit by surge in spot LNG not being fully passed on to consumers. We estimate Q4FY21E EPS of IGL and MGL to be up 43-48% YoY driven by 34-37% YoY (8- 17% QoQ) rise in EBITDA margin to Rs8.9-13.2/scm and 6% YoY rise in volumes.

* 5% YoY fall in standalone EPS of GSPL: We estimate GSPL’s Q4 standalone EPS to be down 5% YoY hit by 12% YoY fall in its transmission volumes to 32.3mmscmd as surge in spot LNG price in Jan’21 led to fall in volumes.

* PLNG’s EPS to be up 86% YoY: PLNG’s Q4FY21E EPS is estimated to be up 86% YoY on a low base, driven by 14% YoY rise in Dahej regas charge and absence of one-time expenses like Rs1bn to PM Cares fund in Q4FY20.

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