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Sensex (59985) / Nifty (17857)

Despite SGX Nifty was indicating a flat opening, our markets started the day slightly lower and aggravated the selling right from the word go. In the initial hour we slid below 18100 and then as the day progressed, the bears thrashed all key supports one after another. Due to massive sell off in individual stocks, Nifty eventually plunged below 17900 to conclude the October expiry on a depressive note. In this process, Nifty concluded with nearly 2% loss, thereby marking a biggest single day cut after April 12, 2021.

Since last week or so, Nifty started to look a bit nervous but banking was providing a strong helping hand and hence we did not see any major damage in benchmark. But yesterday, the financial space finally succumbed to the broader market weakness by tumbling over 3%. This imposed tremendous pressure on Nifty and in the process, Nifty had to finally surrender the sheet anchor support of 18000. In fact, due to aggrandized selling in the last hour, Nifty went on to slide convincingly below 17900. Since last few days, we have been maintaining our cautious stance on the market and even though market was making new highs, we maintained our scepticism and repeatedly advised booking profits. When market was not correcting, this might have sounded senseless, but historically its proven, when things look hunky-dory all around, the euphoric situation takes place and that is the time when market surprises with a corrective move. This is exactly what we witnessed in last week or so and yesterday, finally the bears looked in complete demand. The anticipation has now turned into a confirmation yesterday by violating the 18000 mark. We can see a first sign of weakness on chart which is the ‘Lower Top Lower Bottom’ on daily chart, coinciding with the convincing close below the ’20-day EMA’.

Since market is a bit oversold, we may see some relief move in between; but traders should not get carried away by such rebounds. On the higher side, 18000 – 18100 would now be seen as immediate hurdles and any bounce back towards it, should be used to lighten up longs. On the flipside, we may see this corrective move extending towards 17700 – 17600 – 17450 in coming days. All eyes on banking space going forward because initially it was saviour and now has become the culprit. So it would be interesting to see how it moves going ahead, which is likely to dictate the direction for overall market.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (39509)

After a flat start, bank nifty started correcting lower right from the word go and in the second half the selling pressure got aggravated to eventually end with a deep cut of 3.35% tad above 39500.

Post creating a fresh new high on Monday above the 41800 the prices have sharply corrected back below the 40000 within no time. Hence, yesterday’s fall has definitely wrecked the bullish sentiment. Prices have now reached 50% retracement of the recent rally and the 20 SMA. Going ahead, in case prices bounces from this support as the hourly oscillators are oversold; it should be used to lighten up long positions. In such a scenario, 39900 – 40000 is likely to act as resistance. On the flip side, immediate support is at 39100 and 38700 levels.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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