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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.06% at 47892 after prices pared all gains as dollar seen supported as the ISM PMI surveys showed a record increase in services activity in July. However weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP payrolls data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rates low for longer. The U.S. economy is on track by the end of next year to meet the employment and inflation hurdles the Federal Reserve has set for raising interest rates, which would be consistent with a liftoff in borrowing costs in 2023, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said. Coming just days after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled his view that the U.S. central bank ought to begin paring its bond-buying program by October, Clarida’s comments appear to set up the Fed for a quicker path toward reducing support for the economy than had been widely understood. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen traveled to Atlanta to call for passage of the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, saying it would help reverse wage and racial inequalities and start to mitigate climate change. The Perth Mint's sales of gold products in July fell 3% to their lowest level in nine months. July sales of gold coins and minted bars fell to 70,658 from 72,910 in June. Sales rose nearly 26%, from a year earlier. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.79% to settled at 12247 while prices up 28 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47652 and below same could see a test of 47413 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48244, a move above could see prices testing 48597.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47413-48597.
* Gold prices settled flat as dollar seen supported as the ISM PMI surveys showed a record increase in services activity in July
* However weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP payrolls data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rates low for longer.
* The U.S. economy is on track by the end of next year to meet the employment and inflation hurdles the Federal Reserve has set for raising interest rates
 

Silver 

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 67601 as a measure of U.S. services industry activity jumped to a record high in July, boosted by the shift in spending to services from goods, but businesses continued to face rising prices because of supply chain constraints. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen traveled to Atlanta to call for passage of the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, saying it would help reverse wage and racial inequalities and start to mitigate climate change. Yellen, in excerpts of remarks to be delivered at the city of Atlanta's economic development authority, called the bill, now under debate in the U.S. Senate, the largest infrastructure investment since the construction of the interstate highway system began in the 1950s under the Eisenhower administration. The U.S. economy is on track by the end of next year to meet the employment and inflation hurdles the Federal Reserve has set for raising interest rates, which would be consistent with a liftoff in borrowing costs in 2023, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said. U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in July as shortages of workers and raw materials constrained hiring in the manufacturing and construction industries. The Perth Mint's sales of silver tumbled nearly 29% to touch a six-month low. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.32% to settled at 8532 while prices down -313 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67006 and below same could see a test of 66410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68535, a move above could see prices testing 69468.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66410-69468.
* Silver prices dropped as U.S. services sector index races to record high in July -ISM survey
* U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in July
* U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen traveled to Atlanta to call for passage of the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.98% at 5082 due to global demand concerns after the OPEC production hike during July. Data showed that Chinese factory activity and the US manufacturing sector slowed down during July, which renewed concerns over the global economic recovery during the third quarter. OPEC's oil output rose in July to the highest level since April 2020, following OPEC-Plus decision to ease output restrictions, and after Saudi Arabia gradually canceled its voluntary production cut. Expectations of a return of Iranian crude to the markets also pressured prices. Iran and six powers have been in talks since April to revive a nuclear pact that could release its oil exports. But officials have said significant gaps remain. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by less than expected last week amid ongoing concerns about the threat of the delta variant of Covid-19 to demand. U.S. crude inventories decreased by about 879,000 barrels for the week ended July 30. In China, the spread of the variant from the coast to inland cities has prompted authorities to impose strict measures to bring the outbreak under control. Worries over China’s economy after a survey showed factory activity growing at its slowest pace in 17 months in the world’s second-largest oil consumer. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 35.37% to settled at 7122 while prices down -156 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4998 and below same could see a test of 4913 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5214, a move above could see prices testing 5345.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4913-5345.
* Crude oil prices turned lower due to global demand concerns after the OPEC production hike during July.
* Rising coronavirus cases in China, U.S. seen curbing oil demand
* Expectations of return of Iranian crude add pressure

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.27% at 309.8 on forecasts for hotter weather over the next two weeks than earlier expected and soaring global gas prices that should keep U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs. The oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, fell to 17-to-1. That is below the 21 times oil has traded over gas so far in 2021 and compares with crude's average premium of 19 times over gas in 2020 and a five-year average (2015-2019) of 20 times over gas. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, the same as July. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 90.9 bcfd this week to 94.5 bcfd next week as power generators burn more of the fuel to meet rising air conditioning use. The forecast for next week, however, was lower than Refinitiv predicted as high gas prices prompt some power generators to burn coal instead of gas. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slipped from an average of 10.8 bcfd in July to 10.4 bcfd so far in August due mostly to a reduction at Cameron LNG in Louisiana. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.68% to settled at 18451 while prices up 9.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 302.9 and below same could see a test of 296.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 314.4, a move above could see prices testing 319.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 296.1-319.1.
* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for hotter weather over the next two weeks than earlier expected.
* Support also seen amid soaring global gas prices that should keep U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs.
* The oil-to-gas ratio, fell to 17-to-1 that is below the 21 times oil has traded over gas so far in 2021

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 729.35 as surging cases of the coronavirus’ Delta variant dented the metal’s demand outlook. A measure of U.S. services industry activity jumped to a record high in July, boosted by the shift in spending to services from goods, but businesses continued to face rising prices because of supply chain constraints. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing activity index raced to 64.1 last month, the highest reading in the series’ history, from 60.1 in June. Chinese policymakers have been trying to tame surging commodity prices - from coal to copper - that have squeezed manufacturers’ margins in the world’s second biggest economy. The country has been selling state reserves of coal, metals and imported corn to cool prices, but is buying pork to prop up a slumping market. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, increased its production by 14.9% year-on-year to 151,600 tonnes in June, and by 6.8% so far this year, the Chilean state copper commission Cochilco said. BHP's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, saw production fall 21.6% year-on-year to 82,900 tonnes in the same month, for an accumulated drop of 14.9% in the first half of this year. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.45% to settled at 4916 while prices down -7.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 724.4 and below same could see a test of 719.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 737, a move above could see prices testing 744.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 719.4-744.6.
* Copper prices dropped as surging cases of the coronavirus’ Delta variant dented the metal’s demand outlook.
* Top copper miner Codelco’s June output rose 14.9% year-on-year to 151,600 tonnes
* Production at the world’s biggest copper mine Escondida fell 21.6% in the same period.

Zinc 

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 244.5 as market worried that downstream demand might be limited due to the pandemic. The rapid spreading of Delta variant across the globe has peaked the recent US 7-day average of daily confirmed cases from last summer, while more cases were also reported in China. China National Health Commission said that there were altogether 144 regions with medium to high risks of infections, weighing on market concerns. While in the long term, July zinc ingot inventories added only 515200 mt as a result of escalated power restriction. What’s worse, the further limited power supply in Guangxi is expected to reduce August output by 18000 mt from July, potentially leading to less-than-expected added supply of zinc ingot. However, more consumption demand will be released once the pandemic is under control. U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in July as shortages of workers and raw materials constrained hiring in the manufacturing and construction industries. The fewest job gains in five months shown in the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday suggested some downside risk to economists' expectations for another month of solid payrolls growth when the government publishes its more comprehensive, and closely watched employment report for July. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.73% to settled at 1500 while prices down -0.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 243.7 and below same could see a test of 242.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 245.5, a move above could see prices testing 246.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 242.9-246.5.
* Zinc prices dropped as market worried that downstream demand might be limited due to the pandemic.
* While in the long term, July zinc ingot inventories added only 515200 mt as a result of escalated power restriction.
* The rapid spreading of Delta variant across the globe has peaked the recent US 7-day average of daily confirmed cases from last summer

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 1460.5 as a union representing striking workers at Vale SA’s nickel mine in Sudbury, Canada reached a tentative agreement to settle an ongoing labor dispute that saw 2,500 workers walk off their job on June 1. Nickel stocks across the LME listed warehouses kept falling to 214,632 mt on July 30, down 17,844 or 7.7% mt from June 30. The stocks across SHFE warehouses increased to 6,939 mt on July 23, up 839 mt or 13.75% from June 28. At present, the focus of nickel-based market transactions is still on the stainless steel and new energy markets. Nickel demand by stainless steel market is expected to decline in August, as the production will be reduced amid the power curtailment. However, the overall stainless steel production is still scheduled high, and the raw material supply is not loose. The recent severe pandemic in Indonesia may affect the construction of upstream new capacities and the production progress. The spreading Delta variant intensified the global concerns about the economic recovery. Officials in Australia and New Zealand gave hawkish statements yesterday. Fed actions will be the focus in the short term. The COVID-19 Delta variant is sweeping the globe. The average number of daily confirmed new cases in US has exceeded the peak of last summer. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.71% to settled at 1806 while prices down -9.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1453.8 and below same could see a test of 1447.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1471.9, a move above could see prices testing 1483.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1447.1-1483.3.
* Nickel prices dropped as a workers union at Vale SA’s nickel mine in Sudbury, Canada reached a tentative agreement to settle an ongoing labor dispute
* Nickel demand by stainless steel market is expected to decline in August, as the production will be reduced amid the power curtailment.
* China’s July manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.9 in June to 50.4, lower than expectation.

Aluminium 

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.09% at 204.3 as and market sentiments turned negative amid the sweeping Delta variant of COVID-19. The spreading pandemic in China triggered the concerns about the extension of the off season. On the other hand, domestic social inventories was decreasing smoothly, which strongly supported the aluminium prices. Chinese policymakers have been trying to tame surging commodity prices - from coal to copper - that have squeezed manufacturers’ margins in the world’s second biggest economy. The country has been selling state reserves of coal, metals and imported corn to cool prices, but is buying pork to prop up a slumping market. China imported a further 158,000 tonnes of primary aluminium in June, bringing the half-year tally to 744,000 tonnes. When the world’s largest producer started tapping the international market-place early last year, it appeared to be a temporary blip caused by China’s rapid bounce-back from lockdown. China’s primary metal production growth has stalled as power-hungry smelters adapt to tightening energy efficiency targets. Producers can’t keep pace with demand, meaning imports are needed to rebalance the domestic market. China has hoovered up 1.8 million tonnes of primary aluminium since these accelerated imports began in the second quarter of 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.56% to settled at 2154 while prices down -2.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203.5 and below same could see a test of 202.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.1, a move above could see prices testing 207.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.5-207.7.
* Aluminium prices dropped as and market sentiments turned negative amid the sweeping Delta variant of COVID-19.
* The spreading pandemic in China triggered the concerns about the extension of the off season.
* On the other hand, domestic social inventories was decreasing smoothly, which strongly supported the aluminium prices.
 

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 954.5 on short covering after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -19.9 Rupees to end at 1057 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.38% to settled at 1101 while prices up 2.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 950.8 and below same could see a test of 947.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 957.6, a move above could see prices testing 960.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 947.1-960.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -19.9 Rupees to end at 1057 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.
 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.86% at 9818 amid crop damage due to heavy rain have forced many soyabean farmers in Madhya Pradesh to shift to paddy cultivation this season, which may result in lower than normal production of the oilseed crop for the third time in a row. Soyabean is the largest oilseed crop of the kharif season. Madhya Pradesh was the biggest producer of soyabean until 2018-19, when the output was close to 67 lakh tonne. However, production dropped to 49 lakh tonne in 2019-20 and marginally improved to about 51 lakh tonne the following year — much below the normal production of 65 lakh tonne. Maharashtra emerged as the biggest producer with about 62 lakh tonne in 2020-21. Sowing area under soyabean in Madhya Pradesh was at 44.7 lakh hectare as of July 23, down 19% from the year-ago level, while paddy acreage was 44% higher at 16.8 lakh hectare in the same period. Urad area was down by over 30% at 9.37 lakh hectare. Madhya Pradesh has received 2% above normal rain so far since June 1, largely because precipitation was 36% above average in the first month of the June-September monsoon season. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 181 Rupees to 10062 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.65% to settled at 13390 while prices up 273 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 9454 and below same could see a test of 9091 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 10026, a move above could see prices testing 10235.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 9091-10235.
* Soyabean prices seen supported as Soyabean output seen shrinking as Madhya Pradesh farmers shift to paddy
* In Rajasthan, Soyabean sowing is done in 1002.94 thousand hectares down by -2.9% compared to last year
* USDA reported that the condition of crops unexpectedly deteriorated last week.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  181 Rupees to 10062 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soya Oil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.03% at 1397.4 as prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. However upside seen limited as about 164.43 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (159.16 lakh ha). Thus 5.28 lakh ha more area has covered compared to normal of corresponding week. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1412.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.87% to settled at 23465 while prices up 14.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1388 and below same could see a test of 1378 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1408, a move above could see prices testing 1418.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1378-1418.
* Ref soyoil gained as prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* However upside seen limited as overall area for oilseed covered to 164.43 lakh ha area more by 5.28 lakh ha.
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1412.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.72% at 1133.2 amid concerns over tight production also supporting sentiment. Investors are awaiting estimates for July supply and demand data, typically released ahead of Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data scheduled for Aug. 11, for more direction. July production is expected to remain tight despite estimates of output ticking up in some regions amid the peak production season. European Union palm oil imports in the 2021/22 season that started in July had reached 306,297 tonnes, lower than 567,372 tonnes in the previous season, European Commission data showed. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July fell 6.3 percent to 1,448,483 tonnes from 1,546,014 tonnes shipped during June, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July fell 5.2 percent to 1,440,096 tonnes from 1,519,180 tonnes shipped during June, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated July production to climb 2% on the month. But concerns over smaller-than-usual yields linger as plantations grapple with a labour shortage amid the seasonal higher production months. Malaysian palm oil production for July is expected to be lower on the month on lower oil yields and labour shortages at palm plantations. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 17.2 Rupees to end at 1169.1 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.54% to settled at 5605 while prices up 19.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1119.4 and below same could see a test of 1105.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1145.8, a move above could see prices testing 1158.3.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1105.5-1158.3.
* Crude palm oil gains amid concerns over tight production also supporting sentiment.
* July production is expected to remain tight despite estimates of output ticking up in some regions amid the peak production season.
* Investors are awaiting estimates for July supply and demand data, typically released ahead of MPOB data scheduled for Aug. 11
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 17.2 Rupees to end at 1169.1 Rupees.
 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.02% at 7890 as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. As per sources, estimated mustard crushing during June 2021 stood at 6 lakh tonnes, lower by 33% compared to 9 lakh tonnes last month it is also lower by 25% against 8 lakh tonnes in June 2020. Further negative crush margin for mustard seed also discouraged crushing activity and further reduced buying interest for mustard seed. India’s Rapeseed meal exports fell by 46% to 0.97 lakh tonnes on M-o-M basis during May-2021. However mustard meal exports were higher by 66% as compared to same period last year. In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year. As per USDA in its June-21 update, World Mustard seed production for 2021-22 is estimated to increase by 4% at 741 lakh tonnes. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% to 57 lakh tonnes. Total consumption estimated to remain same around last year and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% at 57 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 7943 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.38% to settled at 23820 while prices up 156 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7760 and below same could see a test of 7631 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7964, a move above could see prices testing 8039.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7631-8039.
* Mustard seed gained as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons.
* Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved.
* In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 7943 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.59% at 7418 as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments in the month of June. As the lockdown restrictions were eased in the month of June, the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7334.5 Rupees gained 1.55 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.26% to settled at 8355 while prices up 116 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7306 and below same could see a test of 7194 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7484, a move above could see prices testing 7550.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7194-7550.
* Turmeric prices seen supported as turmeric crops were severely damaged due to heavy rains.
* Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7334.5 Rupees gained 1.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 13305 as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. There is also uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month following increased arrivals in Gujarat as well as Rajasthan. As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags (of 55 Kg each), i.e., 1.10 to 1.30 lakh tonnes which are higher than usual range of 7-12 Lakh bags. However, after accounting for wastage, and increased exports, market participants are expecting carryover stocks to be around 0.65-0.70 lakh tonnes. It may be noted that during the FY 2020-21 Jeera exports stood at 2.98 lakh tonnes, 39% higher over the previous year. As per sources, export demand for Jeera is expected to recover as close competitors of India in terms of exporting Jeera, viz., Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. It has been reported that production in Syria is likely to be lower because of political instability and in Turkey is also likely to be lower compared to previous year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -41.65 Rupees to end at 13683.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.72% to settled at 4749 while prices up 40 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13230 and below same could see a test of 13160 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13350, a move above could see prices testing 13400.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13160-13400.
* Jeera prices gained as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* However upside seen limited due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -41.65 Rupees to end at 13683.35 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.48% at 27040 as the yield per hectare of Indian cotton has dropped below 500 kg per hectare despite a rise in the area under the fibre crop. Data from the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC), a body comprising representatives from growers, traders, mills, exporters and government, show that while the area under cotton has topped 130 lakh hectares (lh) since 2019, the yield per hectare dropped below 500 kg, four times out of the last six years. According to the CCPC, cotton closing stocks, last season were 120.95 lakh bales, and for the current season, they have been estimated at 97.95. Industry and trader experts feel the closing stocks this season could be lower than CCPC’s estimates. CCPC data show that Maharashtra has the highest area under cotton at 41.84 lh, but its yield is the lowest among all States below 350 kg. Only Gujarat has shown a rise in acreage over the last three years, but this is attributed to the cultivation of an unauthorised Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) variety. Prices seen supported amid expectations of lower supply and increased demand from the textile industry as countries continue re-opening efforts. In spot market, Cotton gained by 80 Rupees to end at 27320 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.77% to settled at 5444 while prices up 130 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 26930 and below same could see a test of 26830 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 27140, a move above could see prices testing 27250.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 26830-27250.
* Cotton prices gained as support seen cotton yield drops below 500 kg per hectare in India despite a rise in area
* Prices seen supported amid expectations of lower supply and increased demand from the textile industry
* World cotton stocks are projected at 89.3 million bales at the end of 2021/22, the lowest in three years.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 80 Rupees to end at 27320 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -1.35% at 4982 as the production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years (2018-19 to 2020-21) and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT (lakh million tonnes) from the 19.5 LMT for 2020-2021, the Parliament was informed. Data from the government showed that all India production of pulses during 2016-17 to 2020-21 -- all numbers in '000 tonnes -- was 23,130.94 for 2016-17, 25,415.92 for 2017-18, 22,075.96 for 2018-19, 23,025.25 for 2019-20, and for 2020-21, it is projected at 25,575.69, as per the 3rd advance estimates. India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said, raising expectations of higher crop yields in Asia's third-biggest economy, which relies heavily on the vast farm sector. "As per most parameters, we expect monsoon rains to be normal in August and September this year," Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a news conference. All over Pulses crop area seen at about 108.87 lakh ha compared to normal of corresponding week (110.68 lakh ha). Thus 2.81 lakh ha less area has been covered compared to normal of corresponding week. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -83.45 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.44% to settled at 74770 while prices down -68 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4938 and below same could see a test of 4895 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5038, a move above could see prices testing 5095.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4895-5095.
* Chana prices dropped as the production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years (2018-19 to 2020-21).
* The target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT (lakh million tonnes) from the 19.5 LMT for 2020-2021, the Parliament was informed.
* India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -83.45 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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