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01-01-1970 12:00 AM | Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
New Year Top Pick 2023 By Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Infosys

*  Infosys continues to see traction in the large deal pipeline, despite an adverse demand environment.

* It is a long term beneficiary of an acceleration in IT spends, given its capabilities around Cloud and Digital transformation

 

SBI

*SBI is one of the few large-cap stocks available at reasonable valuation with high growth visibility (expect ~32% PAT CAGR over FY22-24), led by strong Retail loans and pick-up in corporate segment.

* Asset quality remains strong, with a continuous improvement, while the restructured book remains under control at 0.9%. High mix of floating loans, which will benefit from loan re-pricing, will continue to support the NII and overall earnings.

 

ITC

* A stable tax environment for Cigarettes in recent years has allowed ITC to calibrate price increases and we expect this trend to continue, which should drive earnings visibility over the medium term.

* We are positive on ITC fueled by a: a) better-than-expected demand recovery and a healthy margin outlook in Cigarettes, b) healthy sales momentum in the FMCG business, c) smart recovery from the Hotels business, and d) better capital allocation in recent years

 

Larsen and Turbo

*L&T has a dominant position and market share in most of it operating verticals and is beneficiary of record high order book, improving health of Hyderabad Metro project, and revival in private capex.

* Strong projects pipeline in verticals like transportation (railways, metro and roads) and factories and buildings augurs well for L&T

 

Axis Bank

* Axis Bank has been witnessing strong growth in Retail and Mid-corporate segment, which along with MSME, would remain the key growth drivers.

* It expects cost-to-assets ratio to moderate at ~2% by the end of FY25, which coupled with a benign credit cost would aid RoE expansion. We estimate AXSB to deliver FY24E RoA/RoE of 1.8%/18.1%.

 

Maruti Suzuki

* Maruti is on a strong footing for a recovery in market share and margin with launches gaining traction and semiconductor shortages easing.

* It can gain further market share, led by an expected shift towards petrol and hybrid vehicles, resulting in ~14% volume CAGR over FY22-25E.

 

Titan

* Titan has a strong runway for growth, given its market share of sub-10% in Jewelry and continued struggles faced by its unorganized and organized peers.

* Its medium-to-long-term earnings growth visibility is nonpareil among largecap Consumer and Retail companies. We expect this trend to continue, with a 31% earnings CAGR over FY22-24.

 

Ultra Tech

* Ultratech is expanding grinding capacity domestically to 131mtpa/154mtpa by FY23E/FY25-26E which offers strong growth visibility.

* Further, Cement demand is expected to pick up post the festive season and volume growth should be in double-digits in FY23/24. We expect sales volume growth of ~9% in FY23/24.

 

Apollo Hospital

* We are positive on Apollo Hospital due to: a) a favorable case-mix and increasing occupancy driving better prospects for Healthcare Services, b) strong franchise in the Pharmacy space, with healthy store additions, and c) ongoing investments to enhance its franchise under Apollo 24/7.

* We expect 15% revenue CAGR over FY22-24 driven by growth in Pharmacy, Healthcare, AHLL businesses.

 

IP Industries

* PI Industries has strong levers in place to maintain its growth momentum, led by healthy order book in CSM business, and product launches in the domestic market.

* Factoring in a better-than-expected sales growth and margin expansion, we expect a revenue/ EBITDA /PAT CAGR of 24%/32%/35% over FY22-24.

 

Lodha

* We remain confident on Lodha’s pre-sales growth trajectory as well its ability to build its future project pipeline.

* The pipeline remains strong and its FY23 guidance will be comfortably achieved

 

IHCL

* Indian Hotel's asset-light model and new/reimagined revenue-generating avenues with higher EBITDA margin bodes well for an expansion in RoCE. It is expected to register a CAGR of 50% over FY22-25E.

* We expect the strong demand momentum witnessed in FY22 to continue in FY23-25E, led by further improvement in ARR and occupancy rate due to favorable demand-supply dynamics; higher income from management contracts; and unlocking value by launching reimagined and new brands.

 

Bharat Forge

* While core businesses has a stable outlook for CY23 in both India and exports, Bharat Forge is entering into the era of harvesting from the era of investing, given large part of investments is already done.

* It has incubated several new businesses over the last 10 years, viz a) Defence (2012), b) EV components (2016), c) Aerospace (2016-17), and d) light weighing (2018), which will expand addressable markets and offer good profitability

 

Westlife

* The prospects of healthy growth are bright, led by opportunity in the QSR space and Westlife’s own efforts over the next few years. This growth will be facilitated by an additional 250-300 stores from its current 337 over the next five years.

* Over the next five years, Sales is targeted at INR 40b-INR45b with EBITDA margin at 15-17% Pre IndAS.

 

 

 

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