Neutral TVS Motor Company Ltd For Target Rs.1,000 - Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Below est.; Wholesales down 4% YoY at 242k units
2W volumes declined 3% YoY, while 3W fell 8% YoY
* TVSL’s wholesales declined 4% YoY to 242k units (v/s est.265.35k units).
* 2W volumes fell 3% YoY at 227.7k units. Domestic 2Ws volumes grew 10% to 161.3k units. 2W export volumes decreased 25% YoY to 66.3k units. We estimate 2W FY23 volumes to grow 20% YoY, implying a residual decline of 24% or a monthly run rate of 360.1k units.
* 3W volumes declined 8% YoY to 14.35k units (v/s est.12.4k units). We estimate total 3W volumes to grow 14% in FY23, implying a residual growth of 32% or a monthly run rate of 18.4k units.
* Overall volumes are estimated to grow 19% in FY23, implying a residual run-rate of 378.6k or ~33% residual growth.
* The stock trades at 32.1x/25x FY23E/FY24E EPS. Maintain Neutral.
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